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foShizzle 6 years, 1 month ago

Hello Sunshine, Sunshine Reggae,

  • you didn't say anything about a preflop - I don't like your 4bet sizing at all
  • BB used a very weird sizing so it might be confused, but you have to plan your hand in this situation
  • after your 4bet, your stack size would be around 93bb and this will be an effective stack (BB has 200bb+).
  • So the pot size on the flop would be 41,75. Now some math:
  • after cbet 1/3 pot size = 14bb it would be 69bb in the pot, and your stack left will be 79bb
  • now let's take a look at what would happen if instead, we choose 23bb preflop:
  • after your 4bet, your stack size would be around 90bb and this will be an effective stack.
  • So the pot size on the flop would be 48,25. Now again some math:
  • after cbet 1/3 pot size = 16bb it would be 80bb in the pot, and your stack left will be 74bb
  • ok, now let's take a look on the flop
  • first of all, I don't see any reason to bet here. Tell me, what better hands than yours might fold here?
  • you want to utilize your positional advantage, take a free card, keep pot small and the most important thing, you want to realize the full equity of your hand and I don't like your bet/fold line here
  • about his range, IMO you are just guessing this range and I don't believe that he would shove here something like 98s
  • that's the reason why your odds and equity counting is not good. Now again, think about this: what bluffs might he have here? Completely random ones. I don't believe that an unk (you have only 56 hands and this guy looks reasonable) could shove here TT or JJ because why would he do that? Why would he shove 98s? How do you know that he can call you with 98s?
  • in this situation, you have an easy and absolutely no brainer fold.
  • calling here without more info/reads or dynamics is even is a gambling

I hope this answer helps you and as Laid Back sang, I have got a message for you:
Sunshine, sunshine reggae, don't worry, don't hurry, take it easy :)

Jeff_ 6 years, 1 month ago

Bet-fold seems sound to me. Probably people aren't sqz enough 45,A4,A5.... type of hands to make it more close towards bet-calling.

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