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NL25 Does make sense call if I know that villain is underbluffer?

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NL25 Does make sense call if I know that villain is underbluffer?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BB: $37.98
UTG: $31.95 (Hero)
MP: $29.17
CO: $33.11
BN: $24.25
SB: $25.00
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is UTG with Q A
Hero raises to $0.75, MP raises to $2.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $1.75
Flop ($5.35) 5 Q 6
Hero checks, MP bets $1.69, Hero calls $1.69
Turn ($8.73) 5 Q 6 3
Hero checks, MP bets $5.84, Hero calls $5.84
River ($20.41) 5 Q 6 3 9
Hero checks, MP bets $19.14 and is all in, Hero folds
Final Pot MP wins $19.49
Rake is $0.92

Hi
Villains stats: 21/15
Overall 3bet:6
WWSF:42
W$SD:57

In general, about every single one of us bluffs a little at this limit. So it makes sense to make such calls if I know your opponent doesn't have enough bluffs and at the same time doesn't bet weaker hands like KQ ??

Thanks!

8 Comments

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Samu Patronen 4 years, 8 months ago

I would generally call AQ here because it's just fairly strong in terms of absolute hand strenght and villain can definitely have AQ for value himself. But I agree that it's not particularly exciting against a tight opponent who generally doesn't show up with a lot of bluffs in big pots. You can fold it with reads I suppose but defaulting to folding seems a little excessive to me.

TK1991 4 years, 8 months ago

I saw the opponent that in a similar spot he did not bet KQ on turn. That's why I assume he won't be bet AQ on the river.

Is that a good reason to fold?

Samu Patronen 4 years, 8 months ago

Is that a good reason to fold?

I don't think so. Because AQ is such a strong hand, I would need something more scientific to justify folding.

TK1991 4 years, 7 months ago

Hi, I'm back with this hand. I can't sleep because of that :)
Villain bets on river QQ +, AQ. I won't count AQ because it's a draw. So QQ + = 10 combinations. We block some AA and QQ because we hold AQ. We need the opponent to bet 5 combinations on the river. I can't imagine 5 combinations that would make an opponent blufol on the river. By the way, it's an underblufer. So why do you think it's an easy call?

Thanks!

Brett Banks 4 years, 7 months ago

You need to count AQ. Folding is 0EV. Call and chop is +9.75. Call and win is +41. Call and lose is -20.5. The probabilities of all these things factor in to your total EV.

If you can’t comfortably stack off with this on A or Q high boards you probably should be folding or 4betting preflop

Jbarez 4 years, 7 months ago

If you have decent sample on him then I think ok to overfold there against this player profile but I agree with Samu Petronen - you should not make think about folding as default play there.

HawksWin 4 years, 7 months ago

How do you construct you defend range UTG vs MP 3b? Do you have AA/KK here? if you do, we can consider a fold. I think we have to call this since it is the best hand hand you can really have here if you don't ever trap. Your read needs to be razor sharp to fold I think. I don't think we will have much 66/55.

MattS 4 years, 7 months ago

Preflop
If you can't find calls on the river, you can probably fold preflop against this 3betting range though - high 4 or low 5% here probably.

Postlop
What's checking the river that bet the turn? That's what we're asking right?

If everything short of a nut hand checks on the river but villain is bluffing and semibluffing up to that point, we have an exploiting fold.

Also,
If you have Peter Clarke's book, Hand 130 is a similar hand from villain's POV with a polar betting range. 3bettor is from button and is using a polar range, but it shows how tight the 3betting profile is against UTG - very tight.

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