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NL25 : BTNvCO : R: two pairs hero fold?

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NL25 : BTNvCO : R: two pairs hero fold?

Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) BN: $28.29 (Hero)
SB: $25.10
BB: $12.63
UTG: $25.00
MP: $41.92
CO: $30.40
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with A 7
2 folds, CO raises to $0.62, Hero calls $0.62, SB folds, BB calls $0.37
Flop ($1.96) A J 8
BB checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, BB folds
Turn ($4.96) A J 8 7
CO bets $3.31, Hero calls $3.31
River ($11.58) A J 8 7 6
CO bets $10.00, Hero folds
Final Pot CO wins $11.06
Rake is $0.52

quite tough spot on the river, given that it was 3way pot. (BB is 77/30 fish, CO 24/19 reg)

4 Comments

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4-Star_General 9 years, 7 months ago

First of all, nice nickname :)

Regarding the hand, I don't know how many regs at those would take that line as a bluff/overplay. Some other info like cbet turn and cbet river could help.
Also, it is quite interesting the river bet size...
BTW I think your hand is underep so if he's pretty aggro, he could barrel you off and expect a fold, but at the same time you should call.
Dunno, yeah it's a pretty shitty spot, let's see what other guys are thinking

taaazz 9 years, 7 months ago

The show is amazing! <3

About the hand - no way I'm folding without a read. It's close, sure, but I don't think it's bad by any means.

Board: AhJh8d7d6c

Range 1: AA,JJ,88,AJs,A8s,J8s,KdQd,KhQh,KdTd,KhTh,QdTd,QhTh,AJo Range
2: As7s

Equity 1: 63.636% Win 1: 63.636% Tie 1: 0.000%
Equity 2: 36.364% Win 2: 36.364% Tie 2: 0.000%

And we need ~32% - call.

Oh, and it also depends on how you construct your 3b ranges.

Like, you always 3b AA/JJ, so the more 88, AJs, A8s combos you 3b, the more he should be barrel-happy in this spot.

jxrdvnjvmxs 9 years, 7 months ago

Call river, imo.

we are under repped, and only have to be good 1/3 of the time, roughly.

Some info on his barreling tendencies would help, but there are a few draws that missed, and we don't block any of them(broadway gutters+flush draws), while at the same time, we block a small portion of his value range. Lastly, he could, possibly, Value Bet worse.

Chael Sonnen 9 years, 7 months ago

Don't fold. QT/KT/flush draw/merged bluffs like 97s all missed, he could be betting worse for value, and you are pretty high up in your range.

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