Definitely raise the turn. The fish will call with all sorts of worse hands or even spaz 3bet some of the time. As played I still think there's value in raising. If he 3bets our raise I'm probably calling but it depends on whatever in game reads I have. It would be really hard to justify a fold though

Okay, thanks.

Sample is ~130 Hands.

Definetly raise/call the turn next time against this type of player :)

Always raise the turn as you say. As played, my first intuition was that you should always raise the river too. Given his stats I'd assume he has most of the 2 pair; AT, JT, 8Ts, AJ, A2s, A8 that he plays this way and I think in his mind you don't have a set here often considering how the hand played out. I dunno abt fish's 3bet pattern but I'll assume he won't have AA, TT and JJ very often here? The reg behind you probably peel the turn fairly wide, as the fish is stabbing wide and he probably thinks you'd raise most of your strong hands vs him OTT. He should also not be slowplaying a big hand vs this kind of player, so when he peels he probably have some weakish Ax and a lot of draws. It sucks that some of the straight draws came in on the river, but I'd make it like 8,7-8,8 and fold if co jams and call off the fish. The fish will occasionally stack you w 88 and QK but I also think it's very likely he'll jam a bunch of his 2 pairs and sometimes spaz out w hands like QJ and KJ. Ppl that likes to bluff are general likely to be non-believers IMO. 

I plugged in the numbers for myself. If his range OTR is AT (9 combos) JT (9 combos) 8Ts (2 combos) AJ (9 combos) A2s (1 combo) A8 (9 combos) QK (16 combos) and 88 (3 combos), QJ for bluffs (12 combos) and you call, you're gonna win what's in the pot after u call (10.5) 51 times, and loose 19, ie have the Ev of (10,5x0,73)-(10,5x0,27) = 7,7 - 2,8 = 4,9. Ev of calling is much higher than folding (0) which I think is out of the question. 

Now for the EV of raising. Lets assume he will call you 100% of the time when you raise with his worse 2pair; 8Ts (2 combos), JT (9 combos) A2s (1 combo), A8 (9 combos) = 21 combos. He will fold half of his QJ combos (6) and u will win the same as a call, he will 3bet AJ and AT "for value" when which you'll win and bluff 6 combos of QJ which you'll also win, then you'll loose the additional bet 16 times he has QK and 3 times when he has 88. This gives the Ev = (0,3x22,1) + (10.5x0,09) + (0,34x51,5) - (0,19x51,5) = 6,6 + 0,9 + 17,5 - 9,8 = 15,2 . I e Ev of raising is much higher than just calling. 

Obv these numbers change if your assumptions about about how he plays his ranges pre flop are different than my guesses are. I also didn't take the CO into the equation, and he's def a factor BUT I think you can remove all bluffs from him if he raises, your raise vs fish looks strong and I can only see him shove a nutty hand there, if he somehow has a set in this spot he's prolly just calling so if he 3bet OTR w the fish still behind it's probably best to just fold. So even if the Ev is higher for just calling than my calc bcs of CO I still think you're missing way too much value vs the fish by not raising the river.

Agreed. On this small sample it's very tricky, I think raise/call the river is maxEV against him, but calling is better against an "unknown" agg fish. Thanks for your analysis :)