NL25 bluffcatch w/ top set?
Posted by Limp Limpson
Posted by Limp Limpson posted in Low Stakes
NL25 bluffcatch w/ top set?
villain is 21/14 over 637 hands. First x/r or raise cbet otf. Not aggro at all (AF F/T/R: 2/2/1). Once 3b vs steal w/ K9s and has 3b TT-JJ before. This is contradictory a little bit, since I expect guys who resteal light to occasionally raise or x/r flops.
SB is std passive station.
PF/Flop are std I think. I'd possibly consider giving up otf without As or if it were hu. I know that As blocks his semibluffs, but it also adds a lot of equity and at the time I thought that BB's range is weighted towards made hands anyways.
Key question for those who dont wanna read this wall of text:
1)is turn sizing ok? Essentially I have two ranges for two sizings on this turn, and I dont bet many Tx this way.
2)do I call river?
Turn:
Once BB checks he can have smth like QXss, QJ/Q7/J7, draws (it's possible that his flop stats havent converged yet), occasional lone Qx and very few KT combos, perhaps even KTss only.
I bet so small because:
1)if SB jams I can fold
2)he might fold QJ/Q7/J7/Qx to a bigger bet, but call this one. However, he is a bit more enticed to just call with his draws now, since he is getting a great price vs strong range and he might think that he is getting paid off on flush cards. I'm not sure how relevant that is, since he could x/jam his draws anyway, and I'm not sure how often he checks them. If I bet this small, he can possibly get away really cheaply with his 77 too (if bad card comes otr).
Maybe I should bet bigger? I'm always betting bigger with KT, since that hand is a bit more vulnerable.
I'm planning to b/f if SB x/jams ott. I'm stacking off vs BB.
River:
Sick, since he is not a reg and I dont have that much history, for all I know he can show up with QTo here. He can have some Txss combos. And he is not that aggro to begin with. I hate bluffcatching rivers, but I also wanted to keep QJ and similar hands in his range and he could decide to turn them into bluffs. He shoved really, really quickly too.
I would fold on spade rivers, since I can have a lot of FDs myself. The only actual Tx I can have is ATss, but I think that KT could be in my perceived range, which sucks. From GTO perspective I think I have decent bluffcatcher, since I'm at the top of my actual range, definitely beat all his bluffs and I dont block his twopairs, the only downside being me having As.
thanks
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