Nl25 bluff-line check
Posted by RaoulFlush
Posted by
RaoulFlush
posted in
Low Stakes
Nl25 bluff-line check
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players)
UTG: $25.00
MP: $16.19
CO: $33.01
BN: $25.00
SB: $31.21
BB: $40.21 (Hero)
MP: $16.19
CO: $33.01
BN: $25.00
SB: $31.21
BB: $40.21 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.35)
Hero is BB with
8
T
, , ,
Flop
($1.74)
Q
9
2
, , , , ,
Turn
($6.74)
Q
9
2
6
,
River
($15.74)
Q
9
2
6
4
,
Hey guys,
looking for a feedback on this bluff from yesterday: Villain is a reg playing 29/18/7 with cbet of 58/47/33 (about 700 hands)
Felted kind of meh to XC without a diamond, so i elected to XR flop.
Im aware that the boards is kind of wet and so we XR kind of often maybe.
I felt like once the board ran out like this, unblocking any diamonds (while blocking JTs though) could make this a decent triple.
What you think?
Greetz
Loading 7 Comments...
I possibly like it, my concern is we are representing very narrow value, and are we balanced? We have a ton of combos that could raise flop as a bluff, you would need to be very careful with what you follow through with on the river. None of our draws get there on the river, so we should expect to be called down by Qx often.
Our clear value combos on the river are only 22 and Q9s for 6 value combos. I am expecting you to squeeze QQ, 99 and AQ pre. Maybe you have Q9o?
If we are looking for optimal then you should only have max 3 bluff combos for ~pot jam on the river, and that is assuming you always take this line with 22 and Q9s, but you should probably check them on the turn sometimes. Maybe the best 2 combos are T8cc and J8cc, just don't start jamming your diamond free JT or 87dd. I don't think you have worse hands blocking neither JT nor diamonds.
^ good points. I think if you x/r all of your gut shots and some diamonds, it's gonna be hard to be very balanced here (meaning you'll get to the river with way too many bluffs.)

I had a similar board saved on my hard drive so I thought this could help you out. Your hand is basically the same as Jh8h on this board and makes up a good amount of the 11% x/r the solver does on this flop vs 30% bet. (green is check, red is fold, and the other colors are raise.) That being said the offsuit 6 is a bad card for you, it doesn't complete any of the draws you might x/r on the flop.
I like the bluff since I don't feel like many people would bluff here without diamonds but once he calls turn, I think you'll need a more connected (5-J, diamond) card on the river here to get a fold from most people here.
I don't like our flop size. BTN cbet being small could be a wide range. So we generally want to raise wide as well and go for a smaller raise size. This raise size forces us to be more polarized. Although that is also a viable strategy I prefer a smaller size.
Runout is pretty terrible for us. Have to give up on some bluffs on each street. We are very likely to be overbluffing on river due to our flop polarization. Use bluffs that block Qx and overpairs. I think blocking his calling range might be more relevant than unblocking his folding range here although I'm not 100% sure. KJ would be the hand I want here. Blocks KQ, QJ, KK.
The turn is a blank for both or our ranges here, why are we continuing here? I admit that I am coming back from since Black Friday, but is calling with middle pair or TPWK after your c-bet is check-raised and then giving up on blanks really a thing that the population does often enough now to make this profitable? Assuming it is, why are we continuing on a blank river? Villain showed on the turn that he is willing to keep hold on to whatever he has once he sees that we aren't one and done with the check-raise so I don't see how that river gives us reason to believe he will be laying it down here as I don't see reason to believe the bulk of his range is diamond draws.
Ive been gooing back and forth about possible candidates for XR and triple here. Still quite unsure tbh.
Valuerange OTF:
1. 22/Q9s/Q2s
Bluffs
2. weak NFD: A2s-A8s (I tend to XC stronger NFD due to some SDV usually)/JTdd/KJdd
Im not quite sure if i like XR other KJ here. Would be kind of meh to be folding vs a flop 3bet somehow (looks too strong to me to fold it then). So maybe XR/F without any diamonds and XC with diamonds? Same goes for KT i guess.
Proceed OTT/OTR
I totally agree that turn and river are kind of blanks (even though i improve to OESD OTT, which is my reason to barrel. Same i would have done on a club).
The question is, what do we bluff OTR? Solver dislikes to bluff diamonds due to blocking villains folding range. So imo T8cc still looks decent, beside some KJ combos.
For a count:
12 valuecombos vs
9 KJ (without diamonds) + 1 T8cc
9 KT (without diamonds)
hmmmmmmmmm....so i guess im heavilly overbluffing here :(
lIlCitanul mentioned some good stuff that i agree with. The runout is not very good for us, given that all of our draws brick, we Will have to giveup a fair amount street by street.
I would recommend you to study checkraise strategy. Im confident this is a very low frequnecy checkraise. You generally want to choose your bigger fds/ combo draws. And stuff that draws to the nuts/ willl have the cooler on your side when you hit.
I think KJ is a preferd hand over this as lIlCitanul mentioned. I think that type of hand should be xr way more often than this combo aswell. Sometimes when you hit straights with KT /Kj, IP
Will turn the low straight/ 2pairs. Might not sound like a big deal, but i think it is if you look for thin edges.
I dont mind the river jam, i probably would do iit myself very often if i found myself in that spot. But i think you need to think deeper about How you construct your checkraise ranges. I assume you Will be overbluffing signifcantly if you trippel this combo, Because its likely you Will barrel jt jk kt 8j, + alot of fds aswell.
Also important to notice that he is cbetting into 2 players, that should immediately make you checkraise less often, as he should cbet less often.
BTN bet sizing is quite bizarre here. He is re-opening the betting vs two players who checked. I expect this to be weighted towards something mergy like QT, QJ or KQ even, along with the stronger combos in his range. Seems not so great from a reg to offer such a great price with his bluffs.
I think we can consider also playing the flop as a call here once the SB drops out. We improve our equity on any club, 7 or 6. The caveat is that we will probably have to make some awkward river bluffs when we take the passive line on the flop/turn. Of course, this would assume that he bluffs flop/turn (flop size is kind of odd) with hands like ATdd, KTdd, KJdd that would be hard pressed to call vs river donk bet.
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