why bet bigger on every street? don't we want to keep hands like TT in the pot?

I agree that it looks like a scary board but should it be given the ranges of the villain? I'm not great in 3bet pots and don't play a lot of cash but I don't know how many 5s would be flatting his 3bet on the button, maybe 55 or 65s a certain % of the time? Even that seems a bit loose to me.

T9s is the nuts but really we should only be wary of 1 combo - Ts9s as I don't think think people call twice with a T high gutshot as standard.

Obviously he can have all sets some % of the time and 87 got there for two pair but he could be calling down with a hand like KQ, JQs etc. as well as FDs.

I think I would check most of the time to pick off spade draws that want to bluff the river or a thin value bet (KQ probably the only one), and bet some of time to get value from weaker Qx, depending on whether or not I think he will call down a lot.

A5s, 55, 45s, and 65s are the ones that come to my mind.....
Sure if he is nit may be less...
If someone is opening 45% all those would be standard defends on button, I agree with you about GS's or I will rephrase GS.
Nice post man!
edit

Oh yeah forgot about A5s haha. You put 65s twice so I assume one of those was meant to be 65o but are you really calling 65o here? Seems a bit wide to me but then I'm a bit nitty in these spots.

Even so does he get to the river with all combos of these hands? Maybe 1 combo of A5s and say 65, 55 around 50% of the time. I know he picks up equity with these hands on the turn but it feels like he's calling too much if he calls with these hands 100% of the time.

probably 2 id imagine ♥/♠

Yup, i agree w/ JordyPants, no way that he's not folding most of these 5x/T9/87 combos vs. flop/turn cbets. Then slowplaying set on this texture is also non-standard vs. 2barrels.

I think im in pretty safe spot to make a 1/5-1/4 vbet or something like this, because majority of his range is still Qx.

78s 2nd pair + GS fold too half pot bet?
65s/54 are pair + GS both very good float with 30%+ equity vs most perceived betting ranges...
A5s/ T9s yes I agree you will most likely only see spade combos....
77 is GS with pair on turn with close to 33% equity against a perceived betting range as well.
4x4♠ could be floating flop a no zero % as well with dual back door draws + set outs...( close to 30% against a flop betting range and probably ahead of you on flop close to 40% of the time)

1/5-1/4 vbet

This is fine vs passive opposition, but you say he is reg, you dont think EV with be greater letting him put money in pot with missed draws/ weaker range?

Dont forget your question:

Do you think i got valuebet on river? If answer is yes, then with what sizing?
He's standard regular.

Ok so running the numbers on combos here I decided to see what our equity vs his range on the river.

For the sake of argument I decided to weight the combos we've been disputing such as sets and hands like sets, 54s, 65s etc at 50% (or as close as I could given card removal).

This is what his range looks like: 8d8s, 8d8c, 6d6h, 6d6c, 5d5h, 5d5s, 5s5c, AdQd, AhQh, KdQd, KhQh, AsJs, QdJd, QhJh, AsTs, QdTd, QhTh, JsTs, As9s, Ts9s, As8s, 9s8s, 9c8c, As7s, 8s7s, 8c7c, 7h6h, 7c6c, As5s, 6h5h, 6c5c, 5h4h, AdQh, AhQd, KdQh, KhQd, KsQd, KsQh, KcQd, KcQh

TL;DR - AQs, KQs, QTs, QJs, KQo, most Ax of spades, JTs, T9s, then the 50% combos of 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 55, 66, 88.

Against this range we're 55%.

Against a range that would/might call a bet on the river (AQs, KQs, AQo, 50% combos of KQo, 1 combo of QJs, T9s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 88, 66, 55) we have 32%

Against a range that would bet the river if checked to (AQs, AQo, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, KQs, KQo, QJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 88, 66, 55) we have 47.06%.

However if we remove all the weaker Qx then we only have 25% equity.

So if we think he's more likely to call with a weaker Qx than he is to bet with it then betting seems like the better option.

Hey Jordy very nice post, just remember equity wont always equate to EV.

Very true, very true!

Agree it's probably a x/f spot, depending on villain.
But jamming that river is not so bad either. Against most opponents definitely to thin, but it would still be for value. You just can't make a better hand to fold here ever. Maybe villain folds a chop, but sets? Get real.

Kind of narrows down our options quickly doesn't it :D