[NL25] Aces CO vs MP on tough board
Posted by LeftH
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LeftH
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[NL25] Aces CO vs MP on tough board
Hi guys! so this is a won pot played yesterday with Aces against a LAG player 34/29 with 3.6 AF over 600hands. I see him like a solid player preflop but kind of sticky postflop. and also aggro.
Not even sure about the C-bet size but might be ok?
At the turn once I got xr I'm also not sure about retaking the lead. Might be ok with a small size?
And the river: I feel like it's definitly too thin. There is some hands I can value like AsQs+ (2 combos) KQhh+KQss (2 combos) but so many traps like JJ QQ KK (7 combos)
In game I felt like I could thin value something like KQ with even KQss because I've attacked him a lot during this session but it's only 2 combos lol. I even wonder if he's folded 9Tss river because he emptied all his time bank
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I think it's probably ok, but my guess is a larger bet has more EV if you're choosing one size. It's close because villain has a lot of queens and jacks in range
I would say checking range includes top pair, broadway flush draws, sets, combo draws, TP+FD, etc.
At 25NL I think you have a lot of stuff to bet into for value and very few things are going to check raise you twice, none of which will lose to you.
It's thin, and gutsy. In your favor you counterfeit top two pair, but against that you suggest there's really only likely two combos. KTs may find a call (two combos if they're in range, but way less likely), AQ hard to say but probably should lean fold, AK with a spade is in range because of how small turn bet is as is possibly AsKs, and maybe even AK. These are the hands you're targeting and there's only a couple combos after the check raise. I'd say optimistically more than a handful of combos and pessimistically like two
Against that are the sandbags and 9t/AT all of which are around at some frequency. That's a lot more combos.
I think I prefer a check.
This board and runout is horrible vs both merged and polar flop raising ranges.
Feels thin, I would check and go for it on better rivers.
nh, either AA or AK are your min value bets here but the distinction is important because AK is a ton of combos so you'd need to add a lot of bluffs which are hard to find. I think the strat of jam AA+ is good and dig deep for bluffs; for example if you ever bet TT on the turn just always shove river, that kind of thing.
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