NL25: AA on Q86 2t facing lead 3way
Posted by ohgodwhy
Posted by
ohgodwhy
posted in
Low Stakes
NL25: AA on Q86 2t facing lead 3way
HJ: $25 (Hero)
CO: $20.44
BN: $31.43
SB: $25.10
BB: $35.41
CO: $20.44
BN: $31.43
SB: $25.10
BB: $35.41
CO 24/10/50 hands
villain 29/25
3b 13/sqz 0
lead 2/3
80 hands
villain 29/25
3b 13/sqz 0
lead 2/3
80 hands
Preflop
($0.35)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.50
Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop
($2.35)
6
8
Q
(3 Players)
BB bets $1.75
Should we raise for value here and thus (happily) stackoff if he comes over the top or is it better to just flat and wait for a save turn? Problem is that we entice the CO to overcall with a lot of hands which will make it very hard to realize our equity and makes it easy for them to play their hands close to perfect.
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I'd be a bit happier here with a A diamonds. Keep in mind donkbets are often draws, and with the BB calling with a good price there's likely a hell of a lot of combo's of straights, flushes, combo draws here. Doesn't make a lot of sense to have top pair's here, as you'd think he'd check and then raise or call. If you had a note on him leading, it would be really helpful here. That's something I like to do, take notes on when people act like this, as it's always a confusing play to counter.
What's that stat on his leading mean? 2 out of three times he leads?
I definitely want to isolate the BB here also. Maybe a small raise? Taking AA here threeways to the turn will get very tricky indeed.
He won't have premiums here with that high 3bet stat, with a raise maybe you are throwing hands that lead and you have beaten but with the Fd I don't think it's a good idea to give them good pot odds, our hand is vulnerable at this point I like to raise/fold if shoves unless I be seen him doing it with Fd and Qx.
I think that without a read you're best to just call here and play a turn. Villain is leading into two players where one of which is an EP raiser so I'd expect him to have a mix of some TP's maybe, a bunch of draws and sets/two pair hands. The problem is that if we're up against a range that doesn't include TP hands we're probably not doing amazing vs a range of strong combo draws and better made hands. Also, we still have someone to act behind us and seeing what they do combined with what turn card hits should give us a lot more information.
Yeah since he completes on BB, hes range easily includes 79d, pehaps 57d, JTd, 9Td, even some bad diamond kicker Queens, also i see people lead in these spots with like 68.. so call and raise on a safe turn imo.
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