NL200zoom folding set 88 OTT KJ84(no flush)
Posted by LumeniusN28
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LumeniusN28
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Mid Stakes
NL200zoom folding set 88 OTT KJ84(no flush)
Villain-UTG(520$) raises to 6$
Hero-CO(560$) calls w 88
BB(74$) calls
Flop KcJd8s
UTG cbet 13$, Hero calls, BB calls
Turn 4s
check,check, Hero bets 48$, BB folds, UTG raises to 164$
Hero folds
I opted to fold because UTG is a reg but on a passive side, i thought that he would keep on betting his Kx, AA, and KJ, i dont see him ever check raising me with KJ or some combo draw like AQ, or QTss, maybe 5-10 percent of the time
What would you do?
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Thought about calling and reevaluating on the river, but he has AF:1.5, and it kinda felt that I would be just burning money
On this action, including short-stacked bb I think it is a great fold, would be continuing with some JJ combos and a very small percent of KK that I have in my flatting range, so it could be exploitable for sure, but in this spot i went with my gutt
I think we should call here. Even if villain only raises 2 combos of KJ for worse value and bluffs exclusively QsTs a call is breaking even. This is already a super narrow range to assign to an unknown opponent, so I guess without further information we can't asume that villain is even tighter.
I can see how you make the fold with your assumptions tho and maybe they were correct (you didn't mention how much info you have on villain), but I think the assumptions are just a bit too restrictive here if we haven't played tons with villain already.
This is not true. It depends on how we play our hand on the river (in combination with how often Villain keeps barreling). According to your assumptions Villain will shove the river approximately 80% of the time - and we had to fold. This results in a significant -EV call on the turn. So, either you find way more bluffs - or you just fold.
Even if we estimated that Villain played a perfectly balanced range, it's unlikely that 88 is high enough in our range that we need to defend against the x/r.
Well played - with or w/o reads.
@BigFiszh: Very interesting. I first thought I had a huge flaw in my logic after reading your argument. I then tried to model this spot in Pio as close as possible. I node-locked villain to x/r exactly {KK,JJ,KsJs,KhJh,QsTs} on the turn and Pio never folds 88.
Do you have any idea why Pio completely disagrees even under these super strict range assumptions? (which might be too tight to begin with as I was just trying to construct a worst-case scenario).
Dont get much higher besides JJ...
What range you bet this turn with?
It calls because it makes money, given your assumptions. Would be interesting if you dealt some rivers in the model to investigate which cards Pio calls unimproved.
My model had a fault, 88 always gets folded on the turn. We're actually only defending some JJ and some NFD (had OOP betting most of his KK/JJ before instead of x/r so that his range became more QsTs heavy).
So yes under these assumptions 88 is actually a fold.
I had a sample of hands 2k+ and villain never check raises the turn with a combo draw so I would give like 1/2 of QTss and 1/2 of the KJss and 3 KK, 3 JJ and he is shoving river 85.71 percent of the time minimum in this spot and I have to fold, so folding the turn is +EV in this spot I'm sure
I duno if it's +ev...(folding)
I for one would be very interested in a +EV folding strategy.
I think hero should not fold. Most better hands shold bet turn, so they shold be discounted. Also vilan could easily do this with flush draw, especailly with gutshot. Hero can have many hand here - maybe even AK, so defending just JJ is definitly overfolding.
However overfolding might be Ok exploititavly against this particular villan.
It was very late and you know what i meant
Calling would be -EV in this spot for sure.
Against an aggro villain, would be always calling
This is an insane fold. I cant possibly see how folding a set here could possibly be a reasonable play, We only have 6 combos of hands that beat our hand, and after bb overcalls, its unlikely villian is going to take this line even with JJ with draws such as 9 10/q 10 being in your range and bbs range. Id assume you call flop with k qs/kj/s/ak(i dont know if you standard three bet when you fold 88 here)//q10/910/88 even if your the biggest nit on the planet. Also, we can also have k 10 suited if we can have q 10s. Anyways, how can we advocate folding when we do have bluffs in our range/ 1p hands like kx that can fold to a raise? I think this would be a good spot to make a bet like 40% pot because bb has draws in his range +a short stack, and when he continues, utg as a reg will play pretty honest against the two of us given his stack size. Also, folding so high on our range just seems silly/playing scared.
Also, I think you mention a 2k hand sample which isnt close to a significant sample(20k+). Also, 1.5 af is fairly agressive, esp if hes using a 50% c bet strat on flop. You didnt really give info about villian, and the info you have, theres not enough to make folds this size. Sure if your opponent is a moron, you can tell after 400 hands, but a 200nl zoom player isnt going to be a retard like at a 200 live game.
Against this guy, 9% PFR UTG i dont have QTs in the cutoff against a 3x, have some T9s, but mostly would 3bet with it..
Part of my thinking process was that he was trapping me with that short stacked BB, and he had a plan to get my whole stack, and he could only do that if he x/r the turn.. With that tight range, and him being that passive, would give him at best 1/2of QTss, 1/3 of T9ss, 1/3 AQss, 1 of KJ, and 3 KK, and 3 JJ.. So it is still a fold. I see how many of you think that it's not, and its too tight, but it is a correct one.
I think one way too see this spot is to analyze your database for this exact line.
"I had a sample of hands 2k+ and villain never check raises the turn with a combo draw" after this statement I think you have an easy fold because
1) This spot comes with a such a low frequency that folding here should not impact your WR at all
2) V has a very easy + ev cbet with his range, even for a passive-type strategy. Not sure why would he xR bluff for 82 BBs when he can bet for a lot less.
3) Youre using a big size OTT which make him more likely to think you have a very strong hand like 2p+ and a bid draw and youre less likely to fold to a raise. I think he is exploiting the population tendencies of calling too much in these spots vs a xR.
4) "Part of my thinking process was that he was trapping me with that short stacked BB, and he had a plan to get my whole stack, and he could only do that if he x/r the turn." This is a good statement because youre taking in consideration human factor, a factor that is less and less used these days. All I see is "Solver X wouldnt do action Y here", excluding all human emotions right from the start of the thought process. People tending to play like machines that other people created and never deviate from its strategies - this just not feels right from the human point of view :)
Some other things to mention :
1) You can view this spot by database analysis. Alias all regs -> filter this spot (vs tight-passive strategies) -> see results.
2) You`re putting a lot of enery analyzing a hand which happened once in 2000K hands, Why ? There are other spots which occur with very high frequency and can have a huge impact on your WR.
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