nl200z JJ in SQZ
Posted by Jeff_
Posted by
Jeff_
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl200z JJ in SQZ
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players)
BN: $295.34
SB: $259.31
BB: $225.39
UTG: $644.49
MP: $258.36
CO: $232.02 (Hero)
SB: $259.31
BB: $225.39
UTG: $644.49
MP: $258.36
CO: $232.02 (Hero)
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is CO with
J
J
, , , , , ,
Flop
($67.04)
7
9
4
, ,
Turn
($131.04)
7
9
4
8
,
sb - weak player from Russia (not much stats), btn - 23/14 3bet 6% over 300hands (weak player too but more solid and aware)
Loading 6 Comments...
hmmm pretty tough spot, it's good that we do not have a diamond in our hand, so he can take the same line with a hand such as AJdd which we unblock obv. of course we can discount a hand such as AK, which would take this line pre-flop but not post-flop. he has a tight 3 betting range so you can include all AA-QQ combo's to this line as he is probably scared for the river to come a scary card such as the Td so he is just piling in money now before the board gets too bad for his hand.
honestly I think it's best to just fold.
1-is he jamming worse for value, I don't think so, TT should be a bit cautious of jamming on the turn because that would be a hand that villain would want to get called by, and it's very unlikely that you are going to be calling a turn jam with 9x.
2-is he jamming better for value?? of course, namely the aforementioned AA-QQ, which amounts to 18 combinations, all of which probably take this sizing line given the fact he is a weaker reg/fish.
3-is he jamming hands such as AKo/AQo?? no.
4-so what other hands is he jamming on the turn?? i'd say a hand such as ATdd/AJdd and maybe the odd KJdd but less likely imo.
I put his range of AA-JJ as well as AKdd-ATdd vs our JJ in to an equity calculator and we only have 24% equity on the turn vs this range. you need 36% equity so clearly this a losing call but quite a lot. you will also have sets and some turned straights so you will not be folding 100% of the time either.
I didn't even notice that this pot was played 3 ways either, so that should tighten up his range even farther and make calling off even worse. of course I could be slightly off with villains range, he may have a couple more FD combo's and may shove TT but I still think that this range is pretty accurate, and could even be tighter as he might be checking AK/AQdd on the turn as they do not have the additional straight draw equity.
What about 4bet shoving pre?
There is a lot of dead money.
How do you create your calling range on preflop.
I doubt that you are calling with AKo to see a 3-way pot.
Idk how the villain perceives our range, too. We do have all the sets, turned straights, some two pairs, etc. Probably the JJ loses a lot of value due to villain's line (Squeezing, Cbetting in a 3-way pot, shoving turn.
Shoving seems a bit much, we even have more than 100bb behind. 4betting is a viable option againts a wide, linear range.
I don't mind 4 bet shoving this hand vs some guy who is both 3 betting and squeezing too wide, but from OP's stats it showed only a 6% 3 bet which is extremely tight, so I don't like jamming in to this range (albeit could only be a small sample size.)
also based on the call/call of the button player, he is somewhat likely to be a fish so you don't mind keeping him in the pot because he will increase the EV of ALL of your flats just by being in the pot with you.
I think a hand like AKo or maybe QQ would be much better jams pre, AKo because of it's good blockers to the top of villains 3 betting range, alongside the fold equity that going all in generates, and QQ because it is an equity favourite when called by AK, can get called by TT/JJ which it crushes, and doesn't play too well 3 ways across multiple streets.
Probably a fold. Played around briefly with equilab, and found out that we definitely don't have enough equity againts a range of JJ+ and flushdraws, we'd have to include atleast all TT in order to make this call.
I analyzed this hand before reading the posts and I concluded it was a fairly close decision. We of course need to include some worse value hands in his shoving range (TT, T9 the occasional J9 and A9 - if you include 99 in his squeeze range than I would be inclined to include some of these) but I can see an argument for shoving AdTd , AdJd and QdJd. You are at lease some of the time folding out TT-QQ. Of course a non tricky rec is going to lean towards the value side when shoving, but when I ran the numbers I came up with a pretty close to pot odds range.
So I don't think this is a clear cut fold and maybe I am a station but I would think I am calling here at least some of the time. If we have Jd, its a snap fold.
If this villain is giving you sick reads on his 3B range, than of course this is a fold.
Great hand to review so thank you
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