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nl200z herocalling or mucking

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nl200z herocalling or mucking

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $141.80
SB: $201.00
BB: $219.30 (Hero)
UTG: $723.07
MP: $403.71
CO: $468.21
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is BB with J 7
UTG raises to $4.00, 4 folds, Hero calls $2.00
Flop ($9.00) 2 J 8
Hero checks, UTG bets $6.41, Hero calls $6.41
Turn ($21.82) 2 J 8 7
Hero checks, UTG bets $20.73, Hero calls $20.73
River ($63.28) 2 J 8 7 5
Hero checks, UTG bets $90.00

I have few stats on my opponent 33/20 80h cbet ip 50(4) cbet overall 43 wtsd 33 wwsf 23 wsd 29(7) 3 bet 13%, fold vs 3bet lowwww

Not sure about my take on the hand, over bet from fish usually strong, but some stuff missed and he is bit weird player ( tight or aggro but having cold run)

14 Comments

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Juan S 6 years, 8 months ago

I'm just not folding 2 pair to a fish in this spot. There is always the chance they are punting with some stupid shit like AK or some other random hand. Although I do agree that it does look pretty strong and we do have better hands to call with. Either way, I can't imagine it's a huge mistake to muck or call given the few reads.

Live_your_dreams85 6 years, 8 months ago

Ok so you have all the combos of 9T here and EP should only have 4 combos 9Ts
So nut hands are a small part of his range
flop/turn look fairly standard

River overbet, villain is repping a polarized range vs your condense bluff catcher range. classic nuts/air vs bluffcatcher
considering we block his value Range that would want to use a overbet size IE his sets of JJ,77 I think we have a fairly standard call here.

villain will have more bluffs here then value hand when we hold J7.

BarracudaNL 6 years, 8 months ago

Hey Jeff, we have to call down here. We are in the top 10-15% of our range, have great blockers to value hands, and our opponent could even potentially value bet worse. Theoretically, you will probably even have to call down some bare top pairs.

Spades 6 years, 8 months ago

It honestly depends whether you think villain value bets QQ+ here.

We're getting about 1.5:1 to BE on our call on the river. Vs a V's range of 22, 88, JJ+, AND T9s our hand is at 62%.

If you think the V is fishy then this is a must call I think. If V is just a casual reg who doesn't get out of line often this might just be an exploitative fold. I think our range can be perceived as being uncapped here and that we can have the nuts since we could be calling on flop and turn with T9 since V is choosing such a large sizing.

V is betting huge all 3 streets and over betting river vs an uncapped range on a run out that doesn't have a ton of bluffs.What do you think he could be bluffing here if he's never value owning himself?

round2 6 years, 8 months ago

I don't see myself folding this. Your range contains a lot of JT/J9/98s/TT/99 and there's a decent amount of stuff that missed. Vs described villain, against an overbet I sigh call and expect to see either T9s (4 combos) or AcXc, 65s, etc. trying to get you to fold your pair+gutter hands.

I also think some of the time he will be value pwning himself with AA here as well trying to pwn your Jx and induce a hero call.

Jeff_ 6 years, 8 months ago

Thanks, I'm finding easy calls vs most of pool of regs, however that's guy looked different and when fish over bet I used to think about folding some hands which are calls gto. ( Agree I didn't have enough info to make such assumptions).
And do be fair it is somewhat less mistake I did over session.

Tyler Forrester 6 years, 8 months ago

So I wrote this long post about how it's really close and ultimately not that important to call or fold because of how close it is in value. However, I think if you look at the player type, it's really not that close. You lose to T9s, 33, 88, JJ,77, J8s roughly 14 combos. If he overbets any bluffs or any overpairs, this becomes an easy call. He's ran bad thus far this session with wwsf of 23. It's likely that he's going to be more aggressive. It's also not that likely you have calling hand. In fact J7 is in the top 10% of hands on the river, so seems like an easy call.

Sauce123 6 years, 7 months ago

discount 77 and JJ a bunch bc of flop play, discount J8s because of preflop. It's a weird spot in that he can't be valuebetting overpairs here, and because he raised from EP the next hand class of any freq is a set which we lose to. So despite being in the top 10-15% of our own range we don't plausibly beat value, and J/7 are the least important blockers given his line. So you can in fact fold given a read that the opponent is particularly nitty, putting him squarely on T9s/88/33. But I would never consider folding against a villain of this description; I think we see all kinds of punts from miss-sized value bets with QQ-AA to weird merge-bluffs with 89s, to random 3barrels with AK.

SeniorPomidor 6 years, 6 months ago

I would rais turn to get value from hands like aa kk qq aj kj, some hands like AcKc AcQc and maybe 78, and then shove the river. Why you decided to call turn, only because he bets pot?

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