NL200 zoom, 3bet pre with 56o and 3 barrel. river range construction.
Posted by Ryan Wu
Posted by
Ryan Wu
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 zoom, 3bet pre with 56o and 3 barrel. river range construction.
SB: $270.76
BB: $388.07 (Hero)
UTG: $356.17
HJ: $428.26
CO: $410.01
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, SB calls $12
villain's stats
SB RFI: 40
SB vs. resteal: fold 73%, call 6%, 4bet 21%
Fold to CB (3bet pot, OOP): flop 41%, turn 25%(16), river 50%(4)
raise CB (3bet pot, OOP): flop 7%
My default 3betting range (readless) here is sth like:
99+, ATs+, KJs+, 94s-92s, 84s-82s, 73s-72s, 63s-62s, 52s, AJo+, KQo, 75o, 64o+, 53o+ = 220 combos
(might be much wider here cuz hes fold a lot)
Reasonable range on the river for villain (before action)
K9dd+ (4)
QJdd (1) ?
AJhh (1)
AThh (1)
KQ (11)
KJ (12)
KTs (2)
K9s (2)
QJhh (1)
QThh (1)
JThh (1)
T9hh (1)
98hh (1) … 39 combos
-----------------------------------------------
flush (5) 12.8%
TP (2) 5.1%
Kx (27) 69.2%
miss FD (5) 12.8%
I need 46.7% fold equity → he need to defend 53.3%
39*.533 = 20.8
20.8 - 5 - 2 = 13.8
so he need to defend ~14 combos Kx
if villain’s XC range on the river is
5 combos of flush
2 combos of TP
14 combos of Kx
Whats hero’s value shving range on the river?
Against this XC range:
5 combos flush
2 combos TP
3 combos KQd
3 combos KJd
8 combos Kx
Hero can shove any Ax
Reasonable value shoving range on the river for hero
AA (3)
KK (3)
KQdd (1)
KJdd (1)
25-29dd (5)
36-39dd (4)
47-49dd (3)
54o (8)
64o (8)
AQhh (1)
AJhh (1)
AThh (1) … 39 combos
Hero can add ~ 20 combos bluff
Good hand to bluff:
- hands with Qd, Jd, Td, 9d
- there are probably no hands w/ these blockers in hero’s 2nd barrel range
Bad hand to bluff:
- hands with Qh, Jh, Th, 9h, 8h
- QJhh(1), 29hh(1), 39hh(1), 49hh(1), 28hh(1), 38hh(1), 48hh(1)
Hands need to bluff (have no SDV):
56o(16), miss heart draw
Conclusion:
Bluff with 56o is better than XXhh, and even if we add all of the 56o into our bluffing range on the river, we didnt bluff too much here cuz our value range could be pretty wide.
thoughts?
Loading 6 Comments...
i dont really have a great answer as how to approach rver. i certainly dont think its a bad shove with your hand and the runout. i think pre could just be a fold i think if your 3b as much as you said in op its prob a bit high and leadds 2 alot of spots like this
however i think firing three streets isnt mandatory at all times and if you ever are gonna give up this would be an ok spot to do so...like. im a little concerned because his fold to 3b is so high, and if hes folding so much, hes probably pretty strong now.
id like to see your stats, and if your 3b% is as high as it seems, id be calling down with most hands i got to the river this way with, its obv that your probably shove every bluff you get to the river with on this runout.
just my 2c! im a bit new in these stakes (midstakes cash) so feel free to critique my thought proces here
You're at the bottom of your range and almost nothing missed. Definitely jamming here.
Bet bigger on the flop and a little bigger on the turn, to set up a 3/4 PSB on the river.
The 3-betting range you listed is too bluffheavy imo. Especially with stack sizes where he can 4-bet you, and you can't jam light.
92s/72s/52s are all hands you should be folding pre-flop. 65o is a nice hand to 3-bet bluff.
I'd also add in some hands some offsuit hands with a highcard, like K4o
Anyone else like calling preflop?
Yeah, me! I definitely prefer flatting (even more when being slightly deeper) over building a pot pre with a hand that has so poor chances to flop good enough to create enough pressure on multiple streets (often enough).
+1 for flatting
Edit: bleurgh I keep messing up my calculations.
We need to realise ~92% of our equity to make flatting profitable. That's probably achievable unless villain is hyper aggro.
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