villain's stats

SB RFI: 40

SB vs. resteal: fold 73%, call 6%, 4bet 21%

Fold to CB (3bet pot, OOP): flop 41%, turn 25%(16), river 50%(4)

raise CB (3bet pot, OOP): flop 7%

My default 3betting range (readless) here is sth like:

99+, ATs+, KJs+, 94s-92s, 84s-82s, 73s-72s, 63s-62s, 52s, AJo+, KQo, 75o, 64o+, 53o+ = 220 combos

(might be much wider here cuz hes fold a lot)

Reasonable range on the river for villain (before action)

K9dd+ (4)

QJdd (1) ?

AJhh (1)

AThh (1)

KQ (11)

KJ (12)

KTs (2)

K9s (2)

QJhh (1)

QThh (1)

JThh (1)

T9hh (1)

98hh (1)    … 39 combos

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flush (5) 12.8%

TP (2) 5.1%

Kx (27) 69.2%

miss FD (5) 12.8%

I need 46.7% fold equity → he need to defend 53.3%

39*.533 = 20.8

20.8 - 5 - 2 = 13.8

so he need to defend ~14 combos Kx

if villain’s XC range on the river is  

5 combos of flush

2 combos of TP

14 combos of Kx

Whats hero’s value shving range on the river?

Against this XC range:

5 combos flush

2 combos TP

3 combos KQd

3 combos KJd

8 combos Kx

Hero can shove any Ax 

Reasonable value shoving range on the river for hero

AA (3)

KK (3)

KQdd (1)

KJdd (1)

25-29dd (5)

36-39dd (4)

47-49dd (3)

54o (8)

64o (8)

AQhh (1)

AJhh (1)

AThh (1)   … 39 combos

Hero can add ~ 20 combos bluff

Good hand to bluff:

- hands with Qd, Jd, Td, 9d

- there are probably no hands w/ these blockers in hero’s 2nd barrel range

Bad hand to bluff:

- hands with Qh, Jh, Th, 9h, 8h

- QJhh(1), 29hh(1), 39hh(1), 49hh(1), 28hh(1), 38hh(1), 48hh(1)

Hands need to bluff (have no SDV):

56o(16), miss heart draw

Conclusion:

Bluff with 56o is better than XXhh, and even if we add all of the 56o into our bluffing range on the river, we didnt bluff too much here cuz our value range could be pretty wide.