nl200 vs rec
Posted by Jeff_
Posted by
Jeff_
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl200 vs rec
New player only saw him leading 3 way on the turn vs flop checks with 88 on 45A4o and giving up river OOP. Weak player for sure but tendency are unknown.
Didn't want to play 2 street game as I have no information how wide he is. Flop I will raise here 100% and call KK/AA and possible JJ as they need less protection. Turn pretty standard valuebet
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I'm calling this. Seems likely a player like this is spazzing more than 25%. And that's all we need.
Not having spade is nice, blocking QT which is decent part of limpers range as well is solid. Prefer TT over AA for example for that reason.
I would probably just call because i don't like folding. But could easily be fold. Mainly because its hard to guess his preflop range, what he donk bets with, what he check calls with turn, and then shoves river for a bluff .
Giving him a wide range of all KQo,QJ,Q10,Q9o and all suited combos, and assuming he donk bets them at like a 15% frequency he has around 5.5-6.5 combos of Qx that gets to the river. And now decrease it because some Qx doesn't donk bet shove river.
So maybe like 75% donk bet river (no idea). so around 3.9-4.9 . And only needing around 25% equity to call he only needs around 1.75 bluff max. Maybe 2 combos if you include the turned and rivered full houses that play this way.
So I'd give him same frequencies with a 4x for donk betting flop. Around 15% donk betting frequency , so around 5 combos . And his bluffing frequency on the river around 10% (not really sure and maybe too much) so .5 combos of bluffs for 4x.
And if you add bluffs at very very small frequencies , like AK, AJ, A10, low pocket pairs, and J10s, you maybe get to enough bluffs .
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