NL200 turn xr in 3bp with monster draw

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NL200 turn xr in 3bp with monster draw

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) CO: $314.60 (Hero)
BN: $240.13
SB: $200.00
BB: $829.21
UTG: $208.00
MP: $200.00
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is CO with J Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $5.00, BN raises to $16.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $11.00
Flop ($35.00) 4 9 K
Hero checks, BN bets $12.00, Hero calls $12.00
Turn ($59.00) 4 9 K J
Hero checks, BN bets $42.00, Hero raises to $286.60 and is all in, BN calls $170.13 and is all in
Felt like the best way to play my hand on the turn. I have so much outs against all his 1 pair hands and if he even only folds like 20% of the time it's +ev.
River ($557.73) 4 9 K J 8
Final Pot CO wins and shows a flush, Queen high.
BN lost and shows two pairs, Jacks and Nines.
CO wins $480.26
Rake is $3.00

I think this turn is a lot better for my range than his. I have two pair and better so much more often than him (17 combo's). Would it be a good strategy to just shove all these value hands and bluffs as weak as T9s no fd? I think it puts his AK+ in a really tough spot.

8 Comments

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SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

Flop - This hand should be Check/Raised most of the time. Call is fine a small portion of the time.

Turn - Check/Raising is a mistake. You are getting immediate odds to call. The types of hands you want to Check/Raise on this turn are [JJ, 99, QTs, T8hh, 87hh].

If you are going to Check/Raise QJs the combos you should be Check/Raising are [QJdd, QJss] likely because most hands in villains range which have the Jh are either going to be checking-back the turn or betting small (at least they should). Therefore you are unblocking his large size betting value range a bit more along with having immediate odds to call.

Also, you should never be shoving OTT versus a bet. You should use a raise which is smaller than shove. I would assume this is because villain has bigger nuts in his range than us. We want to get value from his range without isolating ourselves against the nuts.

Jeff_ 6 years, 3 months ago

Hi, good stuff

Also, you should never be shoving OTT versus a bet. You should use a raise which is smaller than shove. I would assume this is because villain has bigger nuts in his range than us. We want to get value from his range without isolating ourselves against the nuts.

Can you say more about it? In my opinion pretty it is pretty much doesn't matter ott between shove or raise(not shove) if villain won't do mistakes (in perfect world).

Resolve 6 years, 3 months ago

Yeah I was considering raising the flop but just calling everything makes my range easier to play. If I xr flop I probably have to mix some sets between xc and xr and I don't know what the right frequencies are.

I understand your point about raising smaller to get value from a bigger part of his range but I don't agree that he has more/stronger nuts than me. He does have KK which I don't but I have all QTs in my range 100% of the time which he probably never or rarely has. His value range is mostly AK and AA and it's really hard to call my shove with those because I have a lot of two pair+.

If I just call and miss I lose a $143 pot and if I hit something I don't get paid off most of the time. Check/shove makes me win the pot without showdown most of the time and If I get called I still win almost half the time.

SnowAndFire 6 years, 3 months ago

Can you say more about it? In my opinion pretty it is pretty much doesn't matter ott between shove or raise(not shove) if villain won't do mistakes (in perfect world).

I don't have the solve currently open. Tbh I am not really sure why it favors a small raise size but it does - and it never shoves. Shoving is an EV mistake. The only thing I can say for sure is that it raises small because raising small captures more value than shoving since the bet size used is going to be the one that captures the most value.

He does have KK which I don't but I have all QTs in my range 100% of the time which he probably never or rarely has. His value range is mostly AK and AA and it's really hard to call my shove with those because I have a lot of two pair+.

This was solved using a 3bet-or-fold strategy which is linear. This makes our assumptions far from each others. There are a couple reasons I assumed he was linear;

  • Rake. I assume he is competent and understands the effect of rake on a strategy.

  • Small 3-bet size. A flatting range fits better into a more polarized strategy.

  • You opened 2.5x. Opening larger allows less flats as villain may get squeezed quite frequently since there is a big incentive to squeeze with all the dead money in the pot.

Therefore, it is likely good regs are using 3-bet-or-fold strategies, or something very similar, versus 2.5x RFI.

If I just call and miss I lose a $143 pot and if I hit something I don't get paid off most of the time. Check/shove makes me win the pot without showdown most of the time and If I get called I still win almost half the time.

Mathematically call makes more money. There may be environments where villain does not defend properly etc and Check/Shoving is the best option, but I have not done that work, and I would suggest making sure to node-lock some strategies to verify your assumptions. In equilibrium, shove is not the best option and any type of raise with this combo is a mistake.

kalciis 6 years, 3 months ago

High frequency x/r on flop w most xombo draws. As played I really doesnt seem like a shove spot on turn, shoving 4x, 9x w flush draws, maybe some combo draws like A10hh, QJ seems too strong here

Resolve 6 years, 3 months ago

I can't have 9xhh 4xhh because those are on the board. It's really hard to have too many bluffs here because I have so much 2p+. Combo draws have so much equity that they can't really be considered purely a bluff.

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