nl200 turn EV
Posted by Jeff_
Posted by
Jeff_
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl200 turn EV
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players)
BN: $200.00 (Hero)
SB: $360.66
BB: $203.00
UTG: $146.12
MP: $324.42
CO: $195.02
SB: $360.66
BB: $203.00
UTG: $146.12
MP: $324.42
CO: $195.02
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is BN with
A
T
, , , ,
villain is rec
Flop
($39.00)
J
J
K
,
Turn
($79.00)
J
J
K
5
Don't know if we have enough odds to call turn. Problem that if diamond will come on the river, villian likely won't pay us with worse enough, if Q comes it is best case scenario, if I have opportunity I will be bluffing any river.
Not sure, his turn size strong and such type of boards fishes don't have high bluffing freq.
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I think that this might just be a fold. If we thought that we had some fold equity, which i don't, we could just jam the turn. Given that we don't always get paid when we hit a flush, that we have some reverse implied odds on both queens and diamonds, and that villain isn't going to be check folding much on the river when everything bricks I'd rather just give this pot up I think.
What about if the flop looks like KdJd8x? Sometimes i like to raise ny gutshots vs donkbets at 3b pots vs recs because they sometimes lead with random stuff like 8x, jx, Gshots and some other stuff thar folds vs raise but i just a diferent board.
What would you do with AA in the same exact spot of KJJ5? Raise flop? Calldown? Call flop and fold turn if i dont have a diamond?
Ty
AA calldown, might fold(river) vs passive villain and without holding Ace of diamond.
We can justify raising too, but it won't be default play and can be higher ev (than calling) vs certain type of opponents
Call flop, probably call turn and then vomit on the river if facing a third barrel.
I don't really see how we have reverse implied odds on a diamond?? do you honestly think that OOP donks KJJdd with KJ?? I would say close to 0% of the time he would do that, weaker players tend to under-bet flops in which they have a lock on the hand- for example Axx in 3 bet pots when they have AA they tend to x back because they block everything. so I think it is against a recs intuition to donk top boats blocking absolutely everything.
on, for example, a Td/9d/Qd river then yeah I guess sometimes he has random boats, but then we can just exploitably fold if he jams in to us on a 4 flush when we have the Ad as he should be worried about the flush, unless he has a boat of course.
but yeah the 5 turn should give him no additional boats, J5s/J5o shouldn't be in his pre-flop range. 55 occasionally will be in a fishes donking range but at an extremely low frequency.
and if we 'aren't getting paid' on a diamond river then that means we can just jam our entire range
I could definitely be wrong about folding turn given that most people in this thread have disagreed with me. That being said, the statement above doesn't really help us in this hand. We're trying to figure out how to play this specific hand versus this opponent rather than how to build exploits versus his strategy as a whole.
it didn't finish off the sentence that I typed but you seemed to understand what I meant anyways. yeah that is true, as you said it is about our AT hand, but I just mean that people seem to think that it is a problem when villain doesn't call us when x run out happens, and we look upon this as a bad thing for certain parts of our range that wish to get value when that run out happens.
however, I just wanted to point out that it can be insanely good and profitable if villain puts us on the nut flush/ boat in a specific spot, and that we can turn hands that would normally want to show down, hands such as AKss, in to bluffs as villain is x folding low flushes as well as trips.
with this hand, regardless I believe that we have the odds to call ott, not even taking in to account implied odds, or future bluffing opportunities or whatever. simply because villain almost certainly doesn't have a boat, and can sometimes have a hand such as KQ for 'value.' or a random bluff. even vs JTss type hand I'm pretty sure we have the odds to call. vs a flush we don't but we are playing vs a range so he should have a bunch of weaker hands than only flushes.
Allin @ Turn seems really good
At equilibrium, this is a call that is printing money. If you thought he was under-bluffing the turn, then you should only be folding AxTs combos here as an exploit. Folding AsTx combos is very exploitable here. This is a call and nothing else without reads.
Also, if you think he is tight enough that you cannot call the turn with AsTx then this is a fold pre-flop as an exploit.
How do you think his range looks like OTT?
This is a snap call.
we are getting almost DIRECT odds for drawing to nutflush and GS straight, gettin 2.6 to 1 pot odds , having a 3 to 1 draw, in this case it doesnt even matter much, if villain has a bluffrange or not.
With AA I certainly wouldnt vomit facing some 3-barrel, its great. Fun players who take this sorts of donk lines do it with all kinds of stuff there is rarely so much logic behind it.
Especcially here he donks 1/2p on flop which means generally not top hands close to ever. Betsizes of 70% and below are most often midstrenght / bluffs and potsize is then polar ranges and overbets certainly value heavy.
Maybe just flat calling pre flop ? Im out of touch but thoughts?
It's more of a 3bet or fold hand because it performs better in HU pots than MW pots and has decent blockers to 4bet range. ATo loses EV when SB or BB overcalls because it is dominated more often than it dominates and flops medium strength hands more often than nutted hands.
cheers my friend, how are you??? ty!
Crushing as usual :) Playing a mix of ring and HU cash games and looking to start playing midstakes on softer sites in June.
nice bro good for you!! Flirting with poker again
turn call is a clear call, the guy donked so he is a rec almost certainly. I have seen fish donk here and bet twice with hands like pocket 6s before, and lets say that even if he has a J9 type hand do you think he is going to be check folding on a Q, or even a diamond??
when he bets twice he is clearly saying that he likes his hand and isn't folding, or is randomly bluffing. vs either of those ranges your hand is doing very well, if he jams 3x pot on the turn then yeah I guess you can fold, but he can even be betting hands like QTss because he doesn't wanna check fold the turn and is just hoping you fold a slightly better hand.
what you were saying about 'not getting paid' on a diamond river, okay cool. then what you do is take ALL off your Kx hands and bluff them on the river. if he has Jx and is just gonna check fold 100% of the time on a diamond then you can just exploit that crap out of him by turning your entire range weaker than Jx in to a bluff. then let him have fun by 'hero' check folding diamond rivers :)
folding the turn here is ridiculous, and people aren't taking in to account enough that the OOP guy just randomly donked. vs a reg it is more acceptable, but I would still fold this hand 0% of the time.
also, in terms of mdf, if you are folding this hand on the turn then you are way over folding. you will have much weaker hands like the aforementioned QTss, AQ without a diamond type hands.
pre-flop I don't like the 3 bet, but vs a weaker player I guess its fine.
you called turn right?? :P
Folding turn isn't an option. AxTd would be a kinda tight but acceptable turn fold imo. Shoving turn would be pretty aggro imo. You'll end up calling turn and probably bluffing river vs a X; the EV on the river bluff should run >0 but won't be huge, but your Xdown EV here will be nearly 0 so it's the best play
What about the option of raising his flop bet to $50-55 to continue our story of having a big hand(AdJx, AdAx, or AdKx with this board) and potentially getting to showdown cheaper? I like this line. You can find out a lot about his holdings. Best hands he is leading the flop into you with are Jx not including KJ, QdTd, and maybe Td9d. If we make the raise and he flats then we have really put him in an awkward spot with any flush draw since we hold the Ad. I don't see any information about the villain so less to base anything off of.
As played, any non Q or non diamond we can fold on the turn. However, any diamond turn we MUST call the $50 into $126. What else would we be calling the flop bet for? 100% call turn and puke river on any non diamond.
There's sure a lot of puking in this thread.
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