nl200, trips linecheck
Posted by igotya
Posted by
igotya
posted in
Mid Stakes
nl200, trips linecheck
BN: $200
SB: $201
BB: $372.77
UTG: $103.88
HJ: $488.34
CO: $231.68 (Hero)
SB: $201
BB: $372.77
UTG: $103.88
HJ: $488.34
CO: $231.68 (Hero)
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
J
Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $5, BN calls $5, SB calls $4, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $5, BN calls $5, SB calls $4, BB folds
Flop
($17.00)
J
J
5
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $12,
BN calls $12,
SB calls $12
Turn
($53.00)
7
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $34,
BN calls $34,
SB calls $34
River
($155.00)
A
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero checks,
BN bets $149,
SB folds,
Hero folds
Final Pot
BN
wins $152.20
,
BN
wins $149
SB i've marked as a fish but he is playing 4tables 24/18 so he is probably just a badreg.
To call river I would need him to turn Ahxh into a bluff?
Loading 8 Comments...
First of all I would prefer a little bigger turn bet to protect many draws against two potential opponents, out of position. That being said, him only calling two streets while being squeezed doesnt show a lot of strength. With that ace on the river who doesn't complete the draws, i don't see myself checking very often.
In fact, if i check there given the action, my only response to his shove is a clear call nh if you beat me, but with the given infos, I prefer value bet on the weaker side to price any Axss(who obviously won't value bet the river given your infos) , sometimes weaker Jx who would have bet bigger if i check anyways...
On top of that, you said that the vilain hasn't done anything crazy after a 5,000 sample hands, i don't expect him to bluff our bet on the river very often, if even possible. I would not worry about the SB either.
Given that it's most likely < 10 combos and {AJ/KJ/55} are 13 combos... likely +3 77 combos for 16 if I'm not mistaken. I think I like the fold. However, something to note about situations like this when nut/bluff combos are very small is that it doesn't take all that many added spazzbluff combos to make calling the right play.
i find 11 combos (not big diference) for AJ KJ 55 ( 5d5c, 5s5c, 5s5d, AcJc, AhJc, AdJc, AsJc, KcJc, KhJc, KdJc, KsJc)
but i dont undestand this" likely +3 77 combos for 16 if I'm not mistaken."
hope i dont troll dont hesitate to tell me
Group 2: hands that I beat.
Combonator Output combonator.com
Board: Jh Jc 5h 7c Ad
Vs Hero Cards: Qs Jd
Grouped: 16 combos, 1.6% [Hero Eq: 21.88%]
Group 1: 14 combos, 87.5% (1.4% total) [Hero Eq: 10.71%]
Group 2: 2 combos, 12.5% (0.2% total) [Hero Eq: 100.00%]
Group 1: Manual selection
77, 55, AJs, AJo, KJs, KJo, QJo
Group 2: Manual selection
J9s+
1 combo of 77
Here is how we do equitywise vs. that range.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
16 games 0.000 secs 3,200 games/sec
Board: Jh Jc 5h 7c Ad
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.875% 12.50% 09.38% 2 1.50 { QsJd }
Hand 1: 78.125% 68.75% 09.38% 11 1.50 { 7h7s, 55, AJs, KJs, J9s+, AJo, KJo, QJo }
If we jam OTR at least BTN will probably realize that he is bluffcatching with the few combos that I beat and I will never have the required "50%" vs their calling range for it to be a profitable VB and I think a lot of the time given how the hand was played one of them will have a Jx+. (I don't think the bad reg calls Ax at all).
However I do not need to have 50% vs their calling range for the VB to be neutral EV, this depends on how often they're gonna fold when we jam, and when thats said, them folding shouldn't be a good thing per se since those folds will all be worse madehands/potentially bluffhands. I'm clueless mathwise to say a lot more to this.
However if we check and one jams we only need ~33% equity but I realize now that at least BTN should realize that it probably is a bit tough to get value with J9s, JTs so I think he might check those a decent amount.
If we however think that he jams all of this range { 7h7s, 55, AJs, KJs, J9s+, AJo, KJo, QJo }, we need to find very few combos as Lefort already pointed out - 4combos (and that could e.g. be KhQh, KhTh, QhTh, Th9h) to give me over 33% equity vs BTNs range.
However as I pointed out, I'm uncertain whether or not he will be jamming worse hands for value at all and even though BTN should jam all his bluffs when i ck, I'm not sure he will given that I do have some Jx that c/c in my perceived range and SB have a lot of Jx+ aswell.
It is quite amazing how Ah is so different compared to 3h or even Kh (given how many combos of nutfds that suddenly have a pair and most likely will ck back for SD-value.)
Actually imagine the scenario where the river isn't Ah but instead 3h, checking our entire jx+ range could be way higher ev than jamming as long as we assume that BTN jams any draw/jx which is equal to 100% of his range?
Well at least checking the part that isn't too high EV to jam ourselves like QJ should so easily become better to c/c.
-igotya
so reading your mahs it toally agree that we cant bet river for value and i also think (now) it's an easy X/F given his river range
would be glad to read nl 400+ player on this hand
Btw I apologize for the bad grammar in my previous post, no edit option yet.
I don't think theres much more to the hand tbh, I think most is covered.
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