NL200 Top set deep but "I put him on AK"

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NL200 Top set deep but "I put him on AK"

BN: $352.09 (Hero)
SB: $389.91
BB: $331.96
UTG: $241.93
HJ: $189
CO: $127.95
Villain seems like a decent reg. Doesn't seem to be getting out of line too much and has taken somewhat balanced lines vs. me. We have been trading small pots all night. Never got into a big pot with him until now.
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $5, SB raises to $18, BB folds, Hero calls $13
Is flatting QQ ok here? Because if I 4-bet and he 5-bets I'd feel pretty sick. I don't think we have enough of a dynamic for me to be jamming QQ 175BB deep yet.
Flop ($39.00) T J 2 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
I want to bet this flop for value/protection but I also don't want to get CR'ed. If I had QQ with no diamond I would bet this flop for sure.
Turn ($39.00) T J 2 Q (2 Players)
SB bets $26, Hero calls $26
It's possible villain tried to go for a CR OTF w/ a flush and is now value betting me. Also AK which checks the flop will bet this turn. The only 2 hands I think that are worse than mine are maybe QJs/QTs but those are heavily blocked by my hand. So I just call IP for speculation / pot control.
River ($91.00) T J 2 Q 7 (2 Players)
SB bets $87.20, Hero folds
He bet pot relatively quickly on this blank river. Something about his timing made me feel that I was getting value towned. I know QQ is really high up in my range but my spider senses were just going haywire on the river. Still, I want to know if you guys think this is a terrible fold.

19 Comments

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on_the_rise 10 years, 6 months ago

dam pretty bad hand on all street except turn... u are on the very top of your range after checking back... maybe some AK or 89 but you probably stab 89... so pretty bad fold as played

sweet16 10 years, 6 months ago

If we check back flop I hope we are calling 2 barells on a bunch of runouts, and def a good runout like this. I'm just guessing but I feel like we are doing good vs his valuebet range, and he prolly got a fair ammounts of bluffs as well.

BigFiszh 10 years, 6 months ago

Totally agree with DanDan ... we all have such moments, it´s just part of it. :) Not that we shouldn´t try to get better with that - but it doesn´t help to beat yourself up on it.

MrSneeze 10 years, 6 months ago

Not folding river. He can VB worse sets, he can bluff as well.

As for PF, I understand you not wanting to stack off (you don't have to actually), but when you're 150-200bb deep, it's actually a great weapon to 4b IP. So you should def 4b QQ, and if you feel you don't have the dynamics, well just start 4betting light a lot deep IP and see how well it works.

Obv something that needs work at the table (and away, at least thinking about it), I don't want u to start spewing 4betting all the time :p.


Regularblue 10 years, 6 months ago

^^ I agree, i believe that for the same reasons you are apprehensive to 4 bet get it in here with QQ this deep, villain will likely be feeling just as uncomfortable about 5betting a very large portion of his range OOP. So yes i think you will see alot more flat call from mid range pocket pairs, broadways, and big Ax hands. Which clearly we are doing great against and want to be extracting the most value from our hand, given we have the power of posistion throughout the hand, and can always pot control if we get a miserable runout. I believe you are likely losing too much value by not 4betting, especially Vs a depolarized SB range, which is often the case.  We also begin to build a pretty sweet aggro image for later days if we win without showdown.

As played, yeah you def need to bet the flop and call a C/R, to be fair this deep im really not expecting villain to be C/R very much on a monotone board anyways. Again you will be extracting value, and not letting him draw for free, and can always check turn etc.

Yeah the Turn is pret interesting, the fact we dont 4bet QQ pre means we likely dont do it with AK either, meaning we actually are around the middle top of our range, as Ak has plenty lf combos, however quite a few of these are likely to semi bluff the flop. Thus putting our set of QQs higher up in our turn range.   There is just no way we can fold river after calling the turn in this spot, imo it seems absurd to be folding on a pretty blank river like 7c, where only his 89s hands improved, that likely dont 3bet pre all the time because you are deep, and pretty much always cbet the flop, unless he was getting tricky with 89dd, but that is one combo only.

You looked pretty capped here, and is likely a decent spot for villain to overbet the river because of this, just some food for thought...so yeah i think villain can def have some random bluffs, and for sure a decent amount of value cuts on his behalf, as you are seen as capped, thus villain will likely valuebet thinner imo.

But yeah we can just move on, and take the knowledge you learnt from this thread onto the tables in the future.

Nick Howard 10 years, 6 months ago

when you 4bet there you are doing it b/c you think he will play a call 4bet range.  If you think he plays only a very polarized 5bet/fold range, you should probably just be calling the 3bet.  

Santaur 10 years, 6 months ago

This is so off topic and I have a hard time explaining it very often... but even if his only strategy is to 5-bet or fold, then it still can be correct to 4-bet because of our fold equity even though we're not folding out better hands. 

For example, if he has a 3-bet range of 14% but he only have a 5-bet range of 3%, then he's folding so much that even though he's only folding weaker hands or flips, we're still better off 5-betting to deny him his equity. 

bdon22 10 years, 6 months ago

Then should we not use a more polarized range to 4-bet with than "waste" the equity of our QQ? For example hands with more blocking potential such as A5s or KJo.

Nick Howard 10 years, 6 months ago

good post santaur.  i was going to say that if we knew he had a hand like A3s it is probably close as to whether or not we would favor flatting the 3bet or seeing him fold vs the 4bet .. do u think thats way off? i guess it depends a lot on his flop c-bet strategy too (if he c-bets too much w/ A3 , flatting vs 3bet improves relative to 4betting..)


SweetStruggle 10 years, 6 months ago

I like a b4 pre for value and expect to be called by a wide range this deep. Such a great spot IP to punish regs that are not sure why they are calling but do so because they have lots of money behind and we are 4b bluffing a fair amount. These kind of pots also get interesting and are fun to play.

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