NL200 standard spot
Posted by okdude
Posted by
okdude
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 standard spot
BN: $325.77
SB: $211.24
BB: $416.42
UTG: $63.98
HJ: $508.42 (Hero)
CO: $124.78
SB: $211.24
BB: $416.42
UTG: $63.98
HJ: $508.42 (Hero)
CO: $124.78
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
UTG folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BN folds, SB calls $5, BB folds
UTG folds, Hero raises to $6, CO calls $6, BN folds, SB calls $5, BB folds
Flop
($20.00)
3
J
2
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $14,
CO folds,
SB calls $14
Turn
($48.00)
3
J
2
9
(2 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $34,
SB raises to $80
SB is 23/17 5% 3bet
fold flop/turn cbet 33/33%
raise flop/turn cbet 14/10%
On one hand I feel like I'm getting X/R a lot in this spot on the other hand I feel like I'm mostly beat when he raises even if he's only repping J9 and sets. I know thoses assumptions are in conflict with each others.
I would like also to discuss the merit of checking back here.
Thanks.
Loading 9 Comments...
Would you fold AA here? AJ in thiis spot is essentially the same relative hand strength as an overpair. Vs a reg in spot like this I'm calling and probably calling a river shove depending on run out. Like you say his value range is incredibly narrow and I definitely think draws are in his range cosidering the wet board.
I think the question is wether to jam or to call and let him realize equity. Hes repping 99 only for value(22,33 folds pre aswell as J9s) so folding is out of question imo.
yeah, didnt notice the coldcall. Not sure if i would be calling anyways tbh, even in this kind of spot it will be rly hard to turn a profit vs 2 good players oop w 22,33.
The spot is much tougher this way i agree.
I don't agree that 22/33 folds pre and I would prefer getting it in with AA as it has more equity against J9 and sets.
Is a check here has a way lower expectation in EV than a bet ?
I would bet turn for sure. If you dont open really loose in the hijack and aren't cbetting the flop really often I think you can bet fold this turn with AJo and still defend enough of your range to not be exploited.
If his range is TT-22, AJs-A8s, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, AQo-AJo, KJo and he raises all sets, J9 and combo draws (KQs, QTs, KTs, T8s) we got around 27% equity. That raising range is about 15% of his actual range. He may be slowplaying some % of this range and raising some % on the flop but for the most part I think he will be raising the turn. We got him at 10% raise on the turn so looking at the actual numbers it should be a fold ?
I misread the hand, thought Hero was in CO and didn't see that there was in fact a caller in CO. That changes things as that teh SB range is wider. Think 22, 33 and J9s are all in his range. I also agree on the range you assign him above. I'd add 87s as well but that doesn't change much. Probably a slightly losing call. I'd still bet the turn though.
And as to AA vs AJ, you are right about that as well. Not much difference but still makes a slight difference in EV.
Over and out.
This is probably pretty close range wise. Thinking about our flop continuation betting range and then our turn continuation betting range this has probably got to be one of the weaker made hands that we're betting for value w/ KJ. In fact, I just ran some math and as long as we're not continuation betting the flop at a really high percentage we probably don't need to defend worse than QQ on the turn. That is, unless you want to make an exploitable call down.
As far as checking back, I think it's probably a mistake on this board texture as you can continue to get value from worse hands chose to check back bad rivers. Also, this guy seems to not be folding many turns at all and though a check raise is a small concern there certainly seems to be tons of value in getting him to call multiple streets with bluffcatchers.
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