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NL200: spot for 2 betsizes on the river?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

NL200: spot for 2 betsizes on the river?

BN: $257.41
SB: $723.62
BB: $252.65
UTG: $1102.99
HJ: $411.60
CO: $334.90 (Hero)
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $5, BN calls $5, SB folds, BB folds
OR range:
22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A9o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o (#430 / 32%)
Flop ($13.00) J 4 9 (2 Players)
Hero bets $8, BN calls $8
Turn ($29.00) J 4 9 2 (2 Players)
Hero bets $20, BN calls $20
River ($69.00) J 4 9 2 2 (2 Players)

First Step:

when i give him a coldcall range like this: 99-22,AJs-A9s,KJs-K9s,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,87s,AJo,KJo+,QJo
he might have 6 combinations of sets (i assume that he 3bets JJ pre and that he calls 44 pre) and a ton of Jx and some 9x. some of the weakter 9x combos are questonable, but i guess his river range looks like this:

AdJh, AdJc, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, KdJh, KdJc, KhJd, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, QdJh, QdJc, QhJd, QhJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, AdJd, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QhJh, QcJc, JdTd, JhTh, JcTc, Ad9d, Ah9h, As9s, Kd9d, Kh9h, Ks9s, Qd9d, Qh9h, Qs9s, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h, Ts9s, 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 4d4s, 4d4c, 4s4c

(sth around 60 combinations)

AA,JJ,99,44 are 15 combinations. If we go all in on the river,  we can optimaly bluff around 6.5 combos*1. i suggest to use those hands, which dont block many Jx combos.
7h6h, 8h7h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 7h5h, 6h5h, Th7h

*1
X=225, Y=70$
Z=X/(2X+Y)
Z=225/(450+70)
Z=225/520
=>43%


his Mdf is around 24%*2, so folding everything but the fulls is not going to work.

*2
224/70
3,2/(3,2+1)
=>0,76-1
MDF=24%


2nd step would be the creation of a betsize with our other hands, including KK,QQ, Jx and bluffs like QT or the better FDs. maybe sth like this: KK-QQ, QTs, T8s, AdJs, AdJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AsJd, AsJc, AcJd, AcJs, KdJs, KdJc, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJd, KsJc, KcJd, KcJs, KhQh, AdJd, AsJs, AcJc, KdJd, KsJs, KcJc, KhTh, Kh8h, Qh8h, Kh7h (around 33% bluffs added)

edit: * move KK,QQ to range 1, add more bluffs


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