NL200 Set vs. river CRAI

Posted by bdon22

Posted by bdon22 posted in Mid Stakes

Posted 10 years, 7 months ago

NL200 Set vs. river CRAI

BN: $270.49
SB: $201
BB: $200
UTG: $299.70
HJ: $94.40
CO: $321.97 (Hero)

Villain is a strong reg (supernova elite)

Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)

Hero was dealt 8 8
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, Hero calls $6, BN folds, SB folds, BB calls $4

Flop ($19.00) 9 8 5 (3 Players)

BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $12, BB calls $12, UTG folds

Turn ($43.00) 9 8 5 2 (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $30, BB calls $30

River ($103.00) 9 8 5 2 Q (2 Players)

BB checks, Hero bets $50, BB raises to $152, and is all in

I feel 76 could play this way, but also 55. I also think that because of my sizing, I could have possibly induced this CRAI from 66/77. JT also got there but I feel that he might have played that a bit more aggressively along the way (eg. CR flop) so I think I have to call this off?

6 Comments

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ZDARLIGHT23 10 years, 7 months ago

I would expect villain to raise his strongest holdings either flop or turn, given that a 6 or a 7 would be bad cards for him. So you should discount 99/55/76s (most regs won't call with 76o pre)

JT is a possibility, but I don't see a competent player to c/c turn with JT.

So we're looking at a really narrow value range. For all those reasons, and the fact that he's might turn some made hands into bluffs (T9s, J9s, pair+gs,...) I would be inclined to call it off here. But it's definately close, since people don't bluff enough like this.

MrSneeze 10 years, 7 months ago

I think vilain is likely to play every JT combos from the BB, as he's closing the action and get incredible odds. 76o is a more unlikely. So from PF, we probably have 4 to 10 combos of 76o, and probably 10 to 16 JT combos.

I don't see why it would be a bad play in vilain's shoes to X/C 2 with JTo, if he ever thinks he has some implied odds (on this board, you have all the sets in your range when you start barrelling).

So all in all, I'd bet/fold that river. This is so likely for you to have a flopped set or straight that it seems to be a bad spot to turn a hand into a bluff. Adding to that that your opponent just have too many combos of straight in my opinion. Taking off JT of his range because he 'shouldn't' X/C turn would be a big mistake. First off, most players are not playing the way they 'should', and secondly, I don't agree that it's a mistake to X/C JT flop + turn in this situation (I would X/C, so why not other players?).

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 7 months ago

Also, since the board is rainbow JT has clean outs from flop to turn and it keeps rainbow he still is clean to the river. BB does have that many 6x on his range (86s/76s/65s not sure if pair + gutter should call twice 100% of the time but blocking one of the sets makes some difference but not that much against a stronger and polarized towards value range) that would make UTG check on river 7, so he has enough implied odds both ways. 76 does not need to raise OTT since you are representing a polarized range by keep firing on blank turns and to make this bet profitable with your bluffs you most of the times need to bet river.

From a exploitable view I think your bet sizing OTR is not big enough since you are representing a very polarized range in a rainbow texture so you should go bigger on this situation. But you are very value heavy there, since you have all 99/88/55/QQ/76s/98s/JTs and don't have many bluffs and if you decide to barrel QJ/AQ now you can try to showdown it against J9s/T9s because you can't get called enough by these hands. So, your 3barrel range should be very very strong here and a regular would barely ever bluff against this range. I think it is a b/f.