NL200 River bluff jam in 3B pot

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NL200 River bluff jam in 3B pot

BN: $431.30 (Hero)
SB: $201
BB: $403.34
UTG: $216
HJ: $123.42
CO: $204.46
Villain is 21/17 with a 3-bet of 15.4% over 134 hands, WWSF of 53%
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $5, SB raises to $17, BB folds, Hero calls $12
Flop ($37.00) 3 8 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $20, Hero calls $20
2 overs + BDNFD, I cawl.
Turn ($77.00) 3 8 6 K (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks
I considered bluffing this turn but I think I get c/c often here by bluff catchers and turned Kx's. I may also get CRAI'ed.

If I check back and river an A or J it may be good enough to be checked down as well.
River ($77.00) 3 8 6 K J (2 Players)
SB bets $46, Hero raises to $394.30, and is all in
Great card for our range given that we are floating flop with FD often. I think villain could definitely be bet/folding AK/AA or even QQ for thin value on this river, and it's conceivable we could be jamming with every flush in our range and some JJ/KJs.

I also don't think villain has many flushes in his range because he would probably barrel the turn K since it's a great scare card.

Thoughts?


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