NL200 Overbet this river?

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

NL200 Overbet this river?

BN: $203 (Hero)
SB: $198
BB: $172.32
UTG: $224.20
HJ: $316.09
CO: $200
Preflop ($3.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 5 4
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $5, SB calls $4, BB folds
Flop ($12.00) Q K T (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB calls $8
I wouldn't cbet this flop against BB but I think SB's range probably contains less broadways and more small pair type hands.
Turn ($28.00) Q K T 4 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $19, SB calls $19
I decided to stay aggressive after turning a pair. I think checking back could sometimes work too but my 4 has very little SDV once called OTF and I am preparing to fire a 3rd barrel already since his range is pretty capped on this board.
River ($66.00) Q K T 4 7 (2 Players)
SB checks
At this point I think villain is capped to hands like KQ/KT/QT and even many of those will 3-bet pre-flop. I know I have no SDV. Villain's most likely hand now is something like 1 pair + OESD (eg. QJ, JT, KJ)

Good spot to overbet?

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