nl200 I'm puzzled

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nl200 I'm puzzled

BB reg on a tighter side.

Turn I'm mixed some overbets usually betting 2/3 on this turns.

7 Comments

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Jeff_ 4 years, 9 months ago

Here is PIO response vs my bet, and after that my hand mixed towards fold for 75% but calling some 65cc 97cc and so on for better EV.

I have few questions: 1) Why 65cc is better? My assumptions that blocking 2 flushing cards is better since his value range not FH but mostly flushes
2) If I allow multiple river sizing for myself, than my hand is massive +EV bet call for this size.

BigFiszh 4 years, 9 months ago

Forget about Pio. I'd expect the pool to be massively underbluffing in that spot.

And depending on where you started (on the flop?) it's likely that Pio's result is massively biased by a route that it would have taken only very rarely.

DNegs98 4 years, 9 months ago

If BB is "on the tighter side" then do you really think they're balanced here? Against a sicko that realises that you want to overfold to exploit pool here you just have to go with it so they don't run you over but against a tight reg they're just going to have loads of nut flushes to jam in on you here and they won't have the creativity/aggression to get it in with enough bluffs. Also sickos that jam for these small edges in scary spots where they can run into the nuts fairly often tend to move up in stakes fairly quickly.

Shadowfax 4 years, 9 months ago

Villain doesnt top up pre - Im guessing those stack sizes are after the action rather than before.

If villain is on the tighter side as you suggest, I'm struggling to see what you beat.

Is he really check raise jamming a hand such as A4? 4s are blocked anyway so very few combos remain. Even a hand like Q4s seems unlikely as it would have to be exactly Q4ss although he could flat 42ss

Most probably 3bets QQ pre and flats 22. Would he call turn with 88 unblocking clubs? Possibly.

So for value we're now left with AXcc & KXcc combos. Not sure he would raise jam KXcc otr but he might. AKcc, AJcc, ATcc more than likely 3bet pre but who knows with a tight reg, you see those being flat all the time..

I just think there are too many value combos that beat you compared to the combos that he a) value jams but you beat or b) bluff jams - but tight regs aren't bluff jamming an awful lot (but they do now and again when tilting or feeling a llittle exciteable)

Value

3 combos of 22
Q4ss
3 combos of 88
A3cc, A5cc, A6cc, A7cc, A9cc, ATcc . That's 13 combos already.

Bluffs

Ac4s (he might not think hes bluffing this), Ac3, Ac5

Unlikely bluffs
AcQs, AcQd, AcQh < Most probably not bluffing these as he they are great bluffcatchers.

I just cant see you coming up with enough bluff combos to warrant calling to hit that MDF on the river. Not against that player type that doesnt top up pre. Against a whale Im snapping as his range has so much valuecutting hands in it to add to the numerous unbalanced bluffs.

Jeff_ 4 years, 9 months ago

Yes I folded, but thought about my range and think this one is better than JTcc for example. But PIO showed me otherwise : line b1/3 range -b100%-b75% only or 2 sizes (one 150-200%)

robbo 4 years, 9 months ago

It’s hard to find bluffs here for oop. Because most of his range have SD value. So he need to turn like Qx WK or PP with club into a bluff.

I would size pot/overbet and polarize my range slightly more, then i would feel More comfortable folding. This sizing may induce bluffs against some players, because with this sizing you say that you have KK/AA KQ+, wich is more tempting to bluff than if you overbet i feel very comfortable bet folding, as your range is percived to be boats flushes and air

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