NL200 deep - Thin value bet OB
Posted by Gramsci
Posted by
Gramsci
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 deep - Thin value bet OB
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players)
UTG: $259.00
MP: $200.00
CO: $641.39 (Hero)
BN: $325.74
SB: $108.00
BB: $521.38
MP: $200.00
CO: $641.39 (Hero)
BN: $325.74
SB: $108.00
BB: $521.38
Preflop
($3.00)
Hero is CO with
J
A
, , , ,
Flop
($21.40)
9
7
J
, , ,
Turn
($53.40)
9
7
J
6
,
River
($139.40)
9
7
J
6
2
,
Hey guys, villain is one of the weakest regs of the limit. Pretty stationnary and not really good. Do you think its a good spot to have a thin OB range on this run out?
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no because he will probably fold everything you beat. if the flop was j97 with a flush draw, and the turn was a blank thats a good time to overbet because his range is weak. you can do that with any draw and usually they will just fold. he can have straights, sets and two pair on the river. his range isn't necessarily weak because he hasnt raised.
I generally will not be overbetting in this sort of situation on dry boards.
Too fancy in my opinion. Just bet $108. We want him to hero but we don't want to isolate better which I think we do here. We are uncapped an overbet looks insanely strong.
It might be fine not sure. I would like it more if there were not any str8/2p combos like J96|4|2
There are quite a few 99/77 J9s/T8s/97s in both your ranges, what is important here is how villain plays the value portion of his range. Is he prone to raising the turn with most of his value hands mentioned above?
Since you in the CO you have stronger hands to bet for this sizing, so as a default I would use AJ for a smaller sizing with other hands. And AJ is a pretty strong bluff-catcher if villain does begin raising the river aggressively.
Furthermore, the board does allow villain to get to the river with many weaker pair+draw combos, so allowing him the chance for him to call with worse or shove might be more attractive. Do you have some range assumptions to allow us to make a better assessment?
Hey, thanks for the reply.
Well my assumption on villain is that he will most likely raise his 2pair + on flop as he is a weak bad regular. So assuming that I think we have the best hand almost always. The river play is justify by his poor unbalanced strategy that raises hands that have us beat on flop. So that's why I decided to OB the river with AJ here.<
Agree with you all, against most regs this will not be a good play.
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