How's our flop 3b range looking? This hand is much better there.
Also, his turn overbet is horrible and doesn't make any sense

Pio prefers a larger flop sizing when given 70% or 33% options. My guess why - If you bet small, you're trying to make EV by getting a fold from something that is correct to defend vs that size. ie You're looking for overfolds. Obviously not with this exact hand, but range.

With a 70% flop sizing, IP is raising 17% (sets, two pair, overcards+backdoors)
Then OOP shoves with most overpairs (actually folds some), sets, the nut draws, combo draws.

With a forced 33% flop sizing, IP raises a third of the time, which is overpairs (gave IP 20% QQ+), sets, combodraws, some overcards+gutshot.
Then OOP 3bet shoves the hands you'd expect, but that includes the combodraws.

At first glance looks you have to fold there, you aren't having 37% equity there. But I've been looking equilab and there is not much FD/2 pairs/Sets available to play this way so if he start using some kind of QJ,78no draw, or KJ as this play at some frequency calling seems alright. But it is only breakeven play vs certain strategy, vs tight strategy it is losing.

This hand is absolutely unqualified to be discussed w/o any reads. Unless you are 105% sure about Villain's range this is pure gambling and from an EV-point-of-view in most cases losing, almost never profitable.

Equity Win Tie
BU 61.82% 61.82% 0.00% TT-99, 55, T9s, Qc8c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c
SB 38.18% 38.18% 0.00% KcJc

Worst case scenario, if he plays ALL 2p+ like this every time and never bluffs worse than a combo-draw.

Flop 3bet didnt seem like a good idea because his calling range to it has Axcc draws that dominate me and I make all potential low equity bluffs fold.

You can never be 100% sure about an oponent's range, ...

Glad, you didn't point out that 105% is not possible as well. ^^

Your range seems a bit stretchy to me and even in that case your EV is +$5. Take away Q8cc and it drops to -$10. Now get it? I disagree with "worst case scenario", what would be a better-for-you-range that you'd expect to play that way w/o pure guessing game - where it could be as well sets-only with the same probability?!

That said, again, w/o any reads, a tight range is as likely as a weak range. Even against a reasonable weak range you're marginally winning. You'd need a super-weak range to confidently call. And seriously, besides the attempt to argue a mistake - do you really expect an unknown player in NL200 to raise flop, shove turn with crap?

Here's the deal: I see any combo of 55, 99, T9s playing that way (once we witness what Villain is doing), pretty close to 100%. I definitely don't expect any combodraw to play that way in 100%. Maybe 75%, or even 50%, perhaps even lower. Any additional bluff / combo even lower again. Eventually it just doesn't sum up for the necessary EQ - to be break-even, let alone to win enough to compensate for the error margin in case you're wrong.

That's why I said it would be gambling, even though the discussion is still fruitful. :)

BigFiszh

I think this hand is a good example of why we want to 3bet bigger OOP. If you had made it 20-25, the stack to pot ratio would be around 4, and this particular combo just becomes an easy 3bet jam on the flop.

Another advantage of lowering the SPR is the option of playing a two street game. On a wet board like this, many hands in our range benefit from shoving the turn. Difficult to do when the SPR is 6, but if we 3bet bigger and cbet bigger, it allows us to more profitably shove some hands that don't really want to see a river.

I think you should 3B the flop here with all the combo draws and probably also the pair + flush draws if you CB them as well which I like to do although they do make good check backs as well when we're OOP and want to balance our checking range. You just aren't getting the odds on the turn to call and are going to face a barrel here a very high percentage of the time leaving you folding to dominated flush draws. Yes you called here and it worked out but you put in 162 to win 274 so you needed 37% equity and I don't think you have that because even if we assume this guy is check raising and then shoving all of his draws here you still only have 35%

1) 3 bet larger preflop to around 10-12bb to discourage button from making light calls IP.
2) Flop is a wet texture, which advocates for a polarized range / sizing to be used and possibly even over betting some hands.
3) vs a flop raise I would just be 3 betting and getting it in at this stack depth.
4) as played I think turn is a fold and it's optimistic to think villain is calling your 3 bet wide with hands like Q8s given him very few bluff combos. If he has something like Ac4c, you are drawing to only 3 outs.