NL200 Check calling down in 3B pot BvB
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 Check calling down in 3B pot BvB
BN: $375.21
SB: $222.16 (Hero)
BB: $455.61
UTG: $243.83
HJ: $200
CO: $331.40
SB: $222.16 (Hero)
BB: $455.61
UTG: $243.83
HJ: $200
CO: $331.40
Villain is 23/15 with a 3-bet of 9.3% over 113 hands. 16.7% 3-bet in BB (12 hands). AFq 65/71/38. WWSF 70%
Small sample but appears to be quite aggressive pre and post-flop.
Small sample but appears to be quite aggressive pre and post-flop.
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
Q
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $17, Hero calls $11
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $17, Hero calls $11
Vs. someone who is 3-betting 16.7% in BB (small sample) I think I have to defend KQo here.
Flop
($37.00)
3
K
7
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $18,
Hero calls $18
Great flop for us, villain's c-bet here will be polarized.
Turn
($73.00)
3
K
7
2
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $45,
Hero calls $45
Good barreling card for villain's bluffing range if he picked up a club draw or straight draw with a hand like 54s or A4s
River
($163.00)
3
K
7
2
7
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $375.61, and is all in,
Hero calls $142.16, and is all in
The 7 makes set of 77's less likely now (not that he would 3-bet 77 pre) and it's unlikely he would bet a pair of 7's OTF (probably checks that behind at least 1 street).
Every turned draw would probably bluff this river.
I'm at the top of my range here so I think this should be a fairly standard check/call.
Every turned draw would probably bluff this river.
I'm at the top of my range here so I think this should be a fairly standard check/call.
Loading 21 Comments...
Disagree.
I think you can fold your toprange. Your range is face up and I dont expect any bluff from this player at river.
My MDF is 53% on this river. If I am folding KQo here, what can I possibly be calling with?
Nothing. The point is: Do you expect any bluff? If not, you can play exploitable. Do you expect any worst and? I expect the worst hand is KQ (that you are blocking), probably a good player KJ.
If you think every turned draw would bluff river then it is definitely a call since you lose to only 19combos if we give him K7o and 73s. But I agree with Marivsz I think a lot of people will shut down here, especially bvb where they likely expect Kx to always call so its kind of gross. At higher stakes I would expect this is a snap call but here I don't know.
So in theory, call. In reality, fold.
Why do you think that the villain will continuation bet this flop with a polarized range and why do you think he always follows through with his draws on this river?
Well on K73r there are no draws so I would expect him to bet his bluffs and his strong hands and check back his medium strength hands. I wouldn't expect him to c-bet 88-QQ here, for example.
Whereas if it were K76tt, he could definitely bet those hands for value since I can call with worse quite easily plus he is also betting for some protection.
As for his follow through on the river, I don't think he will always triple barrel. But I do think there is a > 0% chance he will bluff it since draws missed, I block TP, and his value range is quite thin. But it's entirely possible that I'm projecting one of my own spewy leaks onto villain here.
Ah, I see. Unfortunately I didn't have any specific reads other than what the HUD stats were telling me:
Given the pot odds OTR, I need to be good ~32% of the time. Just based on all of his aggressive looking stats above is what drove me to the conclusion of calling.
Maybe this is a marginal observation but I just noticed we don't hold any clubs in our hand (which is another + for the case of calling since we don't block any of his bluffing range).
What I find most interesting about a spot like this is that if everyone says to fold KQ, that means villain can't value jam AK. Since Hero is 4betting AK BvB I would assume 100% of the time that also means Villain can't value jam AA. However, if this hand was reversed and hero was value jamming AA everyone would say it is the most standard value jam in the world etc.
Since i doubt many people 3bet and double barrel a 7x hand in this spot it basically means Villain can't jam any hand for value other than the very occasional 33/K7 if people don't just flat those. Something seems wrong!
But people are not playing perfectly. Probably 95% of villain will *close their eyes / click call 3 times with any Kx / grunt that was a cooler vs AK*
That's why shoving AK there on the river is a good play from BB.
And even if SB fold, it's great to not show our hand : aggressiv image, villain can be a little tilty and call us lighter the next time.
So do you think KQ is a call or do you think 95% of villains are calling incorrectly?
I think on the river (paired board), it's a fold and 95% of villain are calling incorrectly w/o any precise read.
PokerIsHard, do you think that you are one of the few regs that would fold KQ here?
thing is that at nl200 90%+ of regs (esp weak ones - 23/15) will shut up on paired seven & u would never see enough bluffs (33%). i'd suggest exploitively fold this river untill this guy prove that u shouldnt :)
Shrug and call. How is he ever going to prove you shouldn't call when you fold 100% of the time? If you want to make an exploitative fold then fold KT, not KQ (every once in a while you chop, beat KJ, plus it's just ridiculous to fold 100% of your range with no player specific read and limited stats that show he's almost certainly not a huge nit)
Is this serious? Can we really fold here? If what you guys are saying is right then I have a huge leak. Is it because of how the board runs out soo bad for villains bluffing, or what? Paired 7 and so on
Yeah I think people who are in the "this hand is a fold" boat are drawing on their experiences with NL200 players in general not being able to bluff this river often. I must have a huge leak too. Maybe I need to move up to where they respect my check/calls!
I usually prefer to 4-bet / fold pre in spots like this. As played, pretty darn close. I don't have a problem making an exploitative fold here. There are a few 7s in his range (A7, 78) as well. A call is completely standard though , especially if you have some sort of read on the villain. Ie could he value bet worse?
Your hand is face up and I would base my decision on any villain specific reads. I have no problem finding a fold here without reads.
If Villans value jamming range contains let's say two KQs combos, 8 AK combos, 6 AA combos, 2 76o combo's, that adds up to 18 combos.
So if he bluffs around 8 combos (AT-AQcc, JTcc, A5o 2x, 56 2x), then you're indifferent here.
Given that you don't have many suited 7x and you never have AK, KQ is high enough in your range to call down.
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