NL200 - BvB 3betpot River spot - The Empire strike Back
Posted by razios
Posted by
razios
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 - BvB 3betpot River spot - The Empire strike Back
BN: $229.59
SB: $296.67 (Hero)
BB: $231.46
UTG: $292.14
HJ: $106.51
CO: $1067.98
SB: $296.67 (Hero)
BB: $231.46
UTG: $292.14
HJ: $106.51
CO: $1067.98
Villain here could be Darth Vader, but he is a 23/18/7 3betting 16 on these positions and fold 54 to 4bet.
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $12
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $6, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $12
I suppose I could go either way, flat or 4bet here but flat might be better since I keep dominated hands in his range.
Flop
($39.00)
J
Q
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $22,
Hero calls $22
Turn
($83.00)
J
Q
3
4
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $46,
Hero calls $46
River
($175.00)
J
Q
3
4
2
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $145.46, and is all in,
Hero folds
Here to me it should seems a fold since I have plenty of Qx to call or even AJ, but I do not block any clubs and he doesn´t rep too much here. Thoughts ?
Final Pot
BB
wins $169.20
Loading 15 Comments...
I think both calling are reasonable plays. Doesn't seem to be any reason to call asfaik. It depends how his range looks, tendencies postflop. What's his cb flop / turn / river and wwsf for example?
Perfectly fine, imho.
Is this spot a mandatory turn call here? It feels weak to fold but I find that many players either give up after a flop cbet or fire 3 on similar boards as this one which seems to give me some trouble with marginal holdings such as this.
I´d say, given the odds we´re getting you´d need a pretty strong (pool) read that Villain has you beat - to make the fold.
I'm thinking we're beat by AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AQ, maybe a few combos of KQ, and possibly a single combo of 33 since I see a bunch of regs 3betting low PPs preflop blind vs blind (perhaps not enough to warrant even 1 combo of 33, though). I would think QJ is just a call pre by most so I wouldn't include that in his range.
I think our KJ is ahead of some club combos, possibly AK/AT if he decides to barrel those showdownable hands which I think is rare, and all out bluffs. I don't think many opponents 3bet hands like T9,KT, and 98 BBvsSB.
What am I missing?
It´s actually closer than I thought - or maybe not even close, but actually a fold.
There are different approaches to get to the decision, one would be to create a (1-alpha)-defense-range, or you could go with our equity.
Let´s look at our equity first:
Say, Villain has round about 30 strong combos (TP+) and he has like 20 bluff-combos (10xAK, 4xAT, 7xFD). We need 27% equity to make the call. Obviously it´s impossible to transform our range-vs-range-equity into EV, but what we can do is to estimate what part of his bluffing-range Villain will give up on the river. I´d say he shoves the river with like 20 combos, so he can afford to bluff 10 combos (if he´s balanced), which means, if he´s giving up the bottom 27% of his overall turnbetting range on the river (nuts + bluffs combined), we´ve got a break-even call on the turn. Assuming a turn-betting-range of 30-combos and a balanced (!) river-shoving-range of 20+10 combos he could afford to bluff the turn with 20 combos - which means, he´s giving up only the bottom 10% - which is not sufficient for us to make the call.
I have trouble following here. Do you assume villain is balanced on the river but not on the turn? Because shouldnt his give up combos be 27% of his river betting combos?
I recognized though, that his shove on the river is less than pot, so it´s even worse for us.
BigFiszh, what you mean "Assuming a turn-betting-range of 30-combos and a balanced (!) river-shoving-range of 20+10 combos he could afford to bluff the turn with 20 combos - which means, he´s giving up only the bottom 10% - which is not sufficient for us to make the call.?"
http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/valuebluff-ratio-when-raising-ip-a-flop/
that's why i 4bet KJ preflop here :D
i guess if we are folding turn we should be better 4betting pre? in which runouts we will be able to call call call? KTxr turn 4hh?
I Just want to state this:
Despite of being KJo a flat or a 4bet, it kind of doesn´t matter too much I guess. You can build your range in whenever way you want it. You can have very aggros pf ranges (like Nanonoko seems to have) or have more flatting ranges without too much 4bets overall. I suppose both are reasonable.
For me, in this spot, flat is always better because:
If we hit top pair against this guy we have a very clear xC 2 streets at least.
We keep shit stuff that we dominate Kxs or Jxs
We still have some blockers that we can use.
I mean, it´s not the end of the world flat or 4bet, I´m pretty sure we have plenty of winners regs here that might disagree with that, but more importantly it to know how we play our range postflop (Like BigFiszh tried to show us)
One problem about our hand here is the strength is completely face up so villain knows will be a hero call spot for us. I think calling down leaves it super tough for us to be exploited in future similar spots here. Its a tough call down to make ofc but calling a 3b in this spot and flopping semi good its tough to fold. It is super super close and having reads on villain will help. Thoughts on folding pre or 4betting?
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