NL200 Bluff this river?
Posted by bdon22
Posted by
bdon22
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 Bluff this river?
BN: $180.57
SB: $180
BB: $402.96 (Hero)
UTG: $200
HJ: $328.11
CO: $477.08
SB: $180
BB: $402.96 (Hero)
UTG: $200
HJ: $328.11
CO: $477.08
Villain is 26/23 over 285 hands with an EP PFR of 27%, F3B of 50%
Flop c-bet of 79%
Flop c-bet of 79%
Preflop
($3.00)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
4
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $4
UTG raises to $6, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $4
3-betting this hand might also be an option
Flop
($13.00)
A
3
8
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $8,
Hero raises to $24,
UTG calls $16
I have a GS+BDFD and given villain's wide EP PFR of 27% and high flop c-bet of 79% I decide to go ahead and C/R. I could have 33/88/A3s/A8s here.
Turn
($61.00)
A
3
8
J
(2 Players)
Hero bets $40,
UTG calls $40
When villain called my flop bet I it could be an Ace very often, or a diamond draw, since I don't block any of those combos.
I think he could still have all set combos in his range though (AA/33/88) as he might not always 3-bet those OTF (especially 33).
That being said, I have 5-high, and the majority of the time if I bet this turn, I'll get to see/bluff a river card as well. If I get jammed on it's not a disaster since my hand was losing anyways.
I think he could still have all set combos in his range though (AA/33/88) as he might not always 3-bet those OTF (especially 33).
That being said, I have 5-high, and the majority of the time if I bet this turn, I'll get to see/bluff a river card as well. If I get jammed on it's not a disaster since my hand was losing anyways.
River
($141.00)
A
3
8
J
3
(2 Players)
The river 3 is really bad for me because it takes away a lot of my sets/2 pair combos. That being said I have 0 SDV... and I don't block any diamonds, which villain may have and fold to a river jam. The 3 also takes away some of villain's sets.
Should I bluff this river? My gut feeling is no, but from an EV POV, my hand never wins unless I bluff. So mathematically I think I need to bet something here?
Should I bluff this river? My gut feeling is no, but from an EV POV, my hand never wins unless I bluff. So mathematically I think I need to bet something here?
Loading 3 Comments...
Honestly I would give up this turn without increasing our equity. We don't need to follow through with 100% of our bluff range.
Is this a standard defend preflop vs a 3x? I would usually fold or 3bet vs 27% opening range in co, and given he is utg and this 27% is a smallish sample I would definitely fold here.
As played I agree with 764319 we should shut down turn. Our value range is so narrow that diamond combos should be enough bluffs for us.
OTR we only have like 6 perceived value combo's now (5 if villain has the As/c) so I don't expect him to fold any of his Ax, and ofc his range OTR doesn't consist of 45% (or wtvr we need him to fold) missed diamonds, so I think we should not shove.
I thought about maybe betting $50 or something since like you say we obv never win when we check but I think even then all Jxdd will call and maybe even Kxdd so that probably still isn't good.
PF is very bad.
Flop is OKish, but not great. What is his fold vs CBet raise % ?
Turn is a fold when UTG calls and we don't improve.
River is a x/fold on this brick.
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