[NL200] A-high facing overbetshove on river
Posted by BigFiszh
Posted by
BigFiszh
posted in
Mid Stakes
[NL200] A-high facing overbetshove on river
Seems to be competent and aggressive. How do you perceive his range on the river?
.wt_rel td {font-weight: bold;}.hheader { font-weight: bold; font-variant: small-caps; font-size : 13px; color: black;}.wt_hh1{ font-weight: bold; font-variant: small-caps; font-size : 12px; color: black; }.wt_h2{ font-variant: small-caps; font-size : 11px; color: black; }.wt_t1{ font-size : 11px; color: black; background-color: #eeeeee; border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 4px; border:1px solid #DDDDFF;}.wt_blue {color:blue}.weaktight_hand {font-size: 11px;}.wt_ul {list-style:none;}€1/€2 No Limit Holdem • 4 Players • iPokerGenerated by weaktight.com.CO€216.27BTN€217Hero (SB)€190BB€270.39 Pre-Flop (€3, 4 players)Hero is SB
1 fold, BTN raises to €4, Hero raises to €14, 1 fold, BTN calls €10 Flop (€31, 2 players) 
Hero checks, BTN bets €15, Hero calls €15 Turn (€61, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks River (€61, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets €188.
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What does he think you can have when check calling this flop as 3bettor ? This is the most important question here in my opinion
I guess his range includes some Ax and maybe some mid pair, I mean if he is a competent player like you say he should be 4betting AKs+ 99+ in a short handed game.
Is this his first time over betting river in a 3bet pot IP? Or ever through this session?
Even though it smells like a bluff I find a fold here and wait for a better spot to make a hero call.
88-TT ..JJ maybe ? (if he is capable calling ip QQ+ for trap sometimes and you know this... this is maybepart of your check-call? ), AtK, AtQ AtJ, maybe A5s, A4s, A3s?
his check-behind turn, after the flop bet, seems a lot some FD+overs and sometimes 88-TT
he could be bluff some part of his range with SD to obtain a fold for some part of your range, 88-TTA
So for me is an easy fold, but what do you think about to check-allin on flop ? he almost always bet after to check with his lowest range for take a pot?
Assume, I´d be calling a potsized bet (which still looks bluffy) with only (!) 50%, then I´d need to call the overbetshove still with 17% and more to make overbetshoving more +EV.
Then you must think you can exploit your opponent by never check calling the flop with your stronger hands. Hence you implicitly assume he doesn't overbet bluff rivers with a high enough frequency, thus you should fold your entire range here.
However if you still want to call some of your hands here, having the Ac is very valuable against someone that folds 67% to 3-bets over a large sample. Not only does he hold fewer non nut club combos, he is also less likely to overbet a small flush here.
its correct?
sorry for mi inglish...
His most likely hands are air or trips+.
Spots like this are just so rare and unlikely to improve your win rate that I wouldn't worry too much about them.
For everyone saying he can only have the nuts or nothing, and that makes you want to call with Ahi, why can't he realize that his jam entices a call from AK and thus do it with a much wider range? You have very little margin for error when calling such a big bet. And if he randomly shows up with 7s full or something, then you're really screwed because your assumptions were wrong (which happens) and now you are hemorrhaging money in this spot by calling with AK.
AK with the Ac could be one of them, but Ac7d is always better. If you have enough of those hands in your range there is no need to call AcKd. Nevertheless AcKd can be still a better bluffcatcher than TT in this spot, absolute handstrength isn't that important.
Your argument is basically that he is not bluffing often enough and that we should fold all bluffcatchers.
And yes, my argument is that we don't need to have a calling range here when we encounter this action/bet size for the first time. We only need to introduce a calling range once there is a legit fear of exploitation.
And for his riverbet? You must have some reasons why you think he is not bluffing here anywhere near often enough.
A couple reasons why I don't think he is bluffing enough to exploiting us with these are his sizing, it's unnecessary to bluff this big when 100 accomplishes the same thing. As well as the fact that our perceived range can include things like 77 or AA (although rare).
Personally depending on the opponent my x/c range could be very strong. I remember playing HU cash deep against an aggressive opponent that would often barrel once I x/c the turn. I started check calling weak bluffcatchers, but after he caught up to that I 3-bet AK and x/c 3 sreets on Axxxx against his random trash.
This 742 flop doesn't hit much of your SB 3-bet range. I'm not saying your range should be strong here against most opponents. But for sure it looks weak, and if our opponent had a strong hand and furthermore we don't have a x/c, c bet range, then slowplaying turns makes no sense for him at all.
And if it is so weak then it also makes a lot of sense to overbet bluff, if a bet of $40 gets called 20% and a $188 folds out overpairs then the EV of betting $188 is higher if it gets called less than 5%.
i would be very tempted to call this and see total air.
other streets just cbet and make the pot easier to play in future. i know its good to change things up but your hand is pretty tough to play now. cbet > check raise > check call > check fold.
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