NL200 6max: missplay on river?
Posted by 1followu
Posted by
1followu
posted in
Mid Stakes
NL200 6max: missplay on river?
BB: $252.66
HJ: $386.54
CO: $239.52
BN: $224.63
SB: $236.60 (Hero)
HJ: $386.54
CO: $239.52
BN: $224.63
SB: $236.60 (Hero)
it seems like a weak and tight regular unknown, i didnt put 77 in his turncallingrange.
Preflop
($3.00)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
K
K
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero raises to $16, BB folds, BN calls $12
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $4, Hero raises to $16, BB folds, BN calls $12
Flop
($35.00)
J
4
3
(2 Players)
Hero bets $17.20,
BN calls $17.20
The betsize in this hand is a failure.
Turn
($69.40)
J
4
3
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets $39.36,
BN calls $39.36
River
($148.12)
J
4
3
5
6
(2 Players)
Hero bets $164.04, and is all in,
BN calls $152.07, and is all in
Final Pot
Hero has
K
K
BN has
6
7
BN
wins $448.46
thx
Loading 15 Comments...
Looks standard to me.
What's going on on the river? This shove would make even 44 stop and think before calling (though 44 raises the turn a high% of the time), so I think you're turning your hand into a bluff.
If all Jx are folding the river then wouldn't a c/c be better? Even then I wouldn't fist pump call.
But if villain is caling atleast most of his AJ combos on the river since the flush and Ax gutshot missed, I think shoving KK for value is fine. Villain will almost never have a 2, is likely raising 44/33 on either the flop or turn, and will only have 67dd, 87dd, and A7dd as far as 7s go. I guess villain getting to the river with 77 is debatable and player dependant but I would guess a "weak tight reg" finds a fold with this hand before the river.
So I think we need to be shoving KK on this river to balance out the times we are shoving missed draws and AK/AQ/maybe AT.
I think in position 112bb deep, a person can definitely have a 2 -- especially for only 8bb. For example I would have A2ss IP for only 8 bb, and I would be floating the flop.
I also think AJ will raise the turn a % of the time to protect its equity since we're not that deep.
So since there aren't that many Jx (or hands of relative equal value) hands that are calling the river to a jam, we could bet smaller to induce, or we could check/call. If I am villain, I think I am jamming a ton of my missed draws on this river, because it's a sucky spot for when the hero has 1p hands.
x/c seems weired i think, i dont think he will bluff alot here cause it looks like a trap (considering our riverrange). i might be wrong.
it seems like hes not gonna bluffcatch here for whatever reason (cant explain). if i ship i dont even beat slowplayed aces even thought im on top of my 3betting range on the river pretty much.
while if i check he obviously ships the fd. above this post i wrote hes not gonna fall into that trap but i mean probably he would often enough.....
.....
maybe i shud buy crev or sth would make it easier^^
If you give this guy, a semi balanced range this is a bad river shove. You describe the player as weak tight then expect him to stack off over 15 combos of top pair hands on a 4-straight. His range: 66-77,AJs,QJs,76s,AJo,Ah7h,Ah2h,As2s,Ac2c,8d7d,Ad7d. Our equity 45%.
Also, the regular is either unknown or he is known as tight. You can't have your cake and eat it too.
I left them out deliberately, because I don't expect anyone to auto-stack top pair on this run out, especially by someone described as weak tight. (It's a full pot shove). Obviously this is player dependent, but this KK shove is more marginal than you suspect.
How do you guys like check-shoving the turn?
I think the turn is still a bet as you pick up a gutshot with your Ace high overcard combos, so villain can still call Jx and pairs 66-TT. I don't think villain bets that often when checked to but maybe he may want to protect against those same Ace high hands mentioned - i see villains just taking the showdoen line often and not betting here
Flop and turn is standard bet. River depends on reads if i think he like turning hands to bluff and i feel he have more FD in range he maybe call fast etc i go for check call. If i feel he is more like herocaller and i feel timing is more like Jx i go for thin value and shove.
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