NL200 55 on KT5KQ

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NL200 55 on KT5KQ

Blinds: $1.00/$2.00 (6 Players) BN: $208.00
SB: $215.60
BB: $725.19
UTG: $333.01
MP: $479.30 (Hero)
CO: $200.00
Villain is a good LAG
Preflop ($3.00) Hero is MP with 5 5
UTG raises to $5.00, Hero calls $5.00, 4 folds
Flop ($13.00) K T 5
UTG bets $9.31, Hero raises to $30.00, UTG calls $20.69
Turn ($73.00) K T 5 K
UTG checks, Hero bets $70.00, UTG calls $70.00
River ($213.00) K T 5 K Q
UTG checks, Hero checks
Not sure if I can value bet this river. Given I bombed the turn I think he may fold all his flushes now and not call river with just naked trips. Although some of those hands may elect to CR the turn since my sizing is so strong (eg. TT, KT, KK). I wonder if that makes him actually weaker on this river? But he can still have KQ, QQ.

5 Comments

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nhilathak 10 years, 4 months ago

You get to this river with absolutely no hands that need to bluff.

So you are so rarely paid here that vbeting 55 is probably bad. I would probably bet TT since he can have 55 also to call but to be v technical I think KT should be your only river vbets.

Interesting spot nevertheless. I wonder if anyone would turn AK into a bluff since you block nut boats and you are at the bottom of your range. I think you would need to have this as a bluff in order to vbet all boats.

Teddy 10 years, 4 months ago

I like the flop raise on a board this dynamic as you have position and will still have a lot of good hands regardless of run-out.

I'd size smaller on the turn, so you can value-bet wider and bet the river and adjust from there if he isn't calling any flush or King-blockers.

Bryan Gour 10 years, 4 months ago

I would expect Villain to open shove any boat that beats you, you have plenty of flushes and trip K's in your range as played so I'm pretty sure he has AK here a huge amount of the time and isn't folding when you bet 1/2 pot.

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