NL20 villain, 3bet spot with villain shoving river. Can we find a call?
Posted by elchipriota
Posted by
elchipriota
posted in
Low Stakes
NL20 villain, 3bet spot with villain shoving river. Can we find a call?
CO: $42.07
BN: $20.00 (Hero)
SB: $23.75
BB: $21.37
Rake is $1.09
Hi Fam! Hand was against a relatively unknown villain. Would love some thoughts on my break down and my math :)
My thoughts:
3bet range of villain. Im assigning him a 22% range as follows - pairs, A2s+,A9o+KTo+,QJo,k9sQ9s,J9s+, 67s+, A2o,A3
Hands he goes bet bet shove:
Value; AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, A4s, AT. 50% of his KT Combos? 40 combos (im expecting some value combos will check back the river).
Bluff: 30% of his A2s to AJ. I expect him to check AK behind for value. (11 combos)
Hands he checks the river with: AK combos, AQ combos (I expect a lot of them to be checked before the river at some point), Tx combos such at KT, QT, JT, some Jacks, AT combos and some small pairs.
I need around 35% equity to break even on the river call but getting around 4.6 to based on his bluff range above.
Equity to call - 43% 2.32 to 1
Bluffing frequency - 21.5% or 3.6 to 1
EV= (0.215x33.35)+(0.785x-14.35)= -3.88
What are your thoughts on villains 3bet range?
Im I being too generous on the villains bluffing range?
Thank you all!
Loading 3 Comments...
Hey,
I'm not expecting to see such a wide 3bet range. I'd say that's insanely high. Without any reads I would expect something closer to AA-TT,AKs-AJs,KQs,AKo-AJo,KQo and then a bunch of suited non-callable hands as bluff.
Not expecting to see a 10NL player 3 barrel bluff in a 3bet pot almost never so I would fold river since we would never win. And, if he 3bets KT, he would shove 100% of them on the river with FH. Don't see a reason to assume he would only shove 50%. Again, the same logic applies to the rest of Tx he gets to the river with. He's only loosing to JJ (assuming you have JJ some of the times and always 4bet QQ+).
Man at 20nl the decision is whether we just fold the turn lol fucking nit bots on WPN amirite?
Hey guys, thanks for the input. Always good to get some perspective.
Seems like I am over thinking this too much hehe.
Is the correct play to fold turn or river?
JamesYang this was played here at Runitonce. :)
Be the first to add a comment