NL20 - Strange spot in 4bet pot

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NL20 - Strange spot in 4bet pot

Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players) UTG: $33.75
MP: $26.63
CO: $21.82
BN: $26.20 (Hero)
SB: $33.32
BB: $11.07
Vilain is a reg pretty aggro, running 31/25, 13% 3bet, 73% fold to 3bet, 4bet range 2.5%, Cbet 77/71/50, river bet 30, SD 27%, WWSF 52%, 255 hands
Preflop ($0.30) Hero is BN with Q Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, CO folds, Hero raises to $1.80, 2 folds, MP raises to $4.00, Hero calls $2.20
I could have just flat given position, but he was lose in his opens. When he 4bet, I decided to just flat as he offers me good price and we are a little deeper (120BB). I don't think I'm in great shape when I 5 bet shove here and folding given the odds is a bit weak.
Flop ($8.30) 3 8 2
MP bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40
strange sizing nothing I can do imo
Turn ($13.10) 3 8 2 5
MP checks, Hero checks
I don't think betting accomplish much here, checking is better imo.
River ($13.10) 3 8 2 5 2
MP bets $5.80, Hero
Is this an auto snap? The thing is that I don't think he is bluffing with this sizing here and my range is pretty face up. He might have pot control KK OTT because he fears AA or decided to bluff catch with AA too. I don't know. He might be thin valubetting JJ too but not sure he 4bets pre an dplay it that way...

Thoughts?

ty ^^

16 Comments

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sauloCosta10 9 years, 10 months ago

Its not the greatest spot in the world since villain has almost no bluffs but I don't think you can fold. People are going to do weird stuff often enough to make this call profitable, since you have great odds

zhizntakaja 9 years, 10 months ago

Id be jamming here more often than I am folding, this guy gonna have bunch of 8x suited hands, A5, A3 which he would 4 bet as a bluff, with how the hand went I think its pretty easy value bet for those hands, however if your image is super tight and this guy doenst have those hands in his range probably just call here is the best option

Knoxox 9 years, 10 months ago

Given that he should bet his AA-KK 99% of the time on the turn there's nothing else you can do besides calling. He might turn some AK into a bluff or valuebet TT-JJ.

runitslow 9 years, 10 months ago

I think simply b/c he can show up here with AK or 10's,JJ's makes this a pretty easy call. Not saying it's a snap call, but I don't think you can avoid it.

maxpower 9 years, 10 months ago

i would of played exactly the same and be happy to call. against this player i would be 3b light for value. i would also have hands that i called flop with in my range that i could fold here, but not QQ

Cozacu 9 years, 10 months ago

As played this is a call on river IMO (although I`ve seen plenty of KK,AA played this way- skipping the turn bet), Depending if he is capable of bluffing river or not... you could fold, but I would be more inclined toward a call.

Now going back to PF, with him folding 73% to 3bets, I would just flat it.

ILoseFlips 9 years, 10 months ago

Yeah agree with preflop, as I said, I 3bet because his raising frequency were pretty high. Against a 20/18 player I would have just called.

ILoseFlips 9 years, 10 months ago

Ok thanx guys, I actually endup time out folding, still not sure if I would have called. Given the odds I think I have to, but it really looks like value and. I can't be sure he always 2 barrel AA/KK, as I said he might be scared of AA with KK or just make some weird trap. I also don't know if JJ is in his range preflop (most players just flat in these positions) and my range is pretty face up too. His flop sizing also looks like a hand that want to be called (i would use this sizing with AA imo)

KaiPhone 9 years, 10 months ago

given that strange sizing i would call and if you loose make a note. that's because his cbetting tendencies makes a lot of a difference. Let's say he only cbets QQ-AA and AdKd. This will put your hand (and also your range which is kind of like JJ-QQ,AK or even just QQ,AK) in a really bad shape of having 16% equity on the flop. This means you should even fold to the cbet. but if he cbets 100% of his range here your range has 46% equity which makes it an easy call.
the check on the turn could mean he has QQ and is not sure about his strength, or he has QQ,KK,AA and wants to hide the strength of his hand, or he has AK and gives up and hopes for a free card. You see how wide the Equities differ without any specific reads on villain, And i think if you, e.g. use the cbet stats you mentioned you would be just far away from the actual stats, because cbet stats in 3b+ pots may differ a lot!

So as i said: without reads it's a call, not because you have the odds for sure, but because i think the information you get here is worth the price. Next time you get in similar spots you will know villains tendencies better.

Sunilson 9 years, 10 months ago

I think the underlying reason why river spot is really close is because of his tight 4bet stats and the sizing he uses otherwise the call is a no-brainer.

However, the bet sizings he uses postflop is just odd that being in villan's shoes, I struggle to put villain on KK-AA. So being the station that I am, I would probably call.

Kuduku 9 years, 10 months ago

I see myself call, get coolered, move on. I don't think calling there makes me a station.
If we have AA and we are in villain's spot do we think he folds QQ in our spot against that bet? We might play AA differently, and get all of his stack if situations are flipped.
I have hard time believing that calling can be much worse than 0 EV. Whereas folding might make some of his random bluffs very +EV.

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