NL20 - River sizing?
Posted by ILoseFlips
Posted by
ILoseFlips
posted in
Low Stakes
NL20 - River sizing?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players)
BB: $22.97 (Hero)
UTG: $33.02
MP: $20.00
CO: $22.07
BN: $20.00
SB: $59.97
UTG: $33.02
MP: $20.00
CO: $22.07
BN: $20.00
SB: $59.97
Vilain is passive calling station pre and postflop.
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is BB with
A
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($5.40)
4
J
J
,
Betting defintively good here, I decided to Xb and pot control a bit, probably better with the As
Turn
($5.40)
4
J
J
K
, ,
he checks twice and my hand needs a bit of protection so I bet, we can check back but I think betting is pretty standard here.
River
($11.00)
4
J
J
K
5
,
What's the best sizing OTR in your opinion? he can obviously have Jx or a flush but he also has a lot of Kx in his range so I think I'm missing too much value by checking (he can also call with some 4 or 5, maybe QQ...). Is it better to bet 3/4 or pretty big (something like 7/8) to extract max value of Kx
Loading 4 Comments...
I would just pot it or something. Seems very likely that villain has Kx, and he is never folding it. Better hands would often play more aggressive. If we know that villain never (or very rarely) plays flush/Jx like this, we should go for an overbet for sure.
Villains range is mostly going to be 88-TT and some weaker Kx. Most people lead their flushes and Jx on the turn, especially with a 3flush on the board.
With this in mind, you should probably look to bet somewhere between 60-75%. Betting big and overrepping your hand makes no sense to me at all. He might put you on a flush or AK and fold a hand like KTs when you bet big/overbet. Not to mention the 88-TT that I see call a lot thinking you have a missed As.
He is probably not folding Kx. I'd be suprised if he did.
Agreed. He's likely weak, so I'd bet on the smaller size and hope for a hero from smaller PP's (Kx probably isn't folding to any reasonable betsize).
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