NL20 - I turned the nutz and don't know what to do
Posted by ILoseFlips
Posted by
ILoseFlips
posted in
Low Stakes
NL20 - I turned the nutz and don't know what to do
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (5 Players)
SB: $20.00
BB: $28.73
UTG: $24.11
CO: $47.58 (Hero)
BN: $20.00
BB: $28.73
UTG: $24.11
CO: $47.58 (Hero)
BN: $20.00
OR is a reg, he seems pretty good for the limit. He is running 23/18, 63% F3bet on 1.2K hands.
BB is a huge fish, pretty aggro, running 70/23 on 129 hands
BB is a huge fish, pretty aggro, running 70/23 on 129 hands
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is CO with
3
A
, , , ,
Preflop is a bit lose but OR had fold 80% vs 3bet in MP OOP.
Flop
($5.50)
T
2
9
, ,
Betting is obv standard but I don't think I have a lot of FE on this flop, they both have 99 - QQ in their range and it creates deception when I hit my hand. I like my check here.
Turn
($5.50)
T
2
9
6
, ,
Ok, here it becomes interesting, I don't think OR is bluffing a lot here (I block nutz flush) so his range is probably pretty strong (DP, sets, straight, flushes, maybe JJ/QQ)
Cold calling in this spot is so ridiculous because I don't really see a hand I would play like that but shoving looks also really strong. The good thing about calling is that I can keep the fish in, and the good thing with raising is that I don't really rep anything except maybe 78 and 66 but I'm probably not raising when the flush hits.
It could be fun to click it back too, he might think it's a miss click :D
Cold calling in this spot is so ridiculous because I don't really see a hand I would play like that but shoving looks also really strong. The good thing about calling is that I can keep the fish in, and the good thing with raising is that I don't really rep anything except maybe 78 and 66 but I'm probably not raising when the flush hits.
It could be fun to click it back too, he might think it's a miss click :D
I don't know, this spot is so ridiculous, any thoughts?
ty
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any play is fine, benefit for jamming that reg will call with sets now and might fold if the heart hits or a bad river completing a straight. If you call you will keep the fish in and i wouldnt care too much that you dont have other hands than the nuts to play it like this, because he might just think you have Ahx hand and call because of the fish. Click back also seems as a good option. Probably I would just call, we dont need protection because if he has a set and hits a boat its just whatever because we would get it in OTT either way. Just let the fish to hit his small flush or a gutshot and stack off OTR.
I like the flop check. Betting can't be bad but I agree with you, we don't have a lot of fold equity and getting raised is not great, since the way the hand plays out is that we call a raise and villain shove the turn, and we can't really call the shove on the turn.
I would just shove. UTG's range is super strong here, pretty much only valuehands because we block nutflushdraws, which are pretty much the only possible bluffraising hands I can imagine UTG having. We get called super often when we shove here, and if we just call, we will lose value on some rivercards.
As you said, your hand is well disguised, use it now an go allin.
I think you can shove. I think the reg at least will discount the nut flush since a lot of people would have cbet the folp with the nfd. So he might call with trips, figuring he still has ten outs even if he guessed wrong. There'd be a little over $34 effective in the pot, and he'd have about $20 behind... he might talk himself into it. The BB is gravy. If he has nothing he's folding anyway. If he has a lower flush, he's never folding. If he comes along, UTG will need to call 20 to win about 58, so he has almost the pot odds he needs anyway (if he has trips.) I think get it in now so you don't have to worry about what to do when the Th shows up on the river.
I think you can shove. I think the reg at least will discount the nut flush since a lot of people would have cbet the folp with the nfd. So he might call with trips, figuring he still has ten outs even if he guessed wrong. There'd be a little over $34 effective in the pot, and he'd have about $20 behind... he might talk himself into it. The BB is gravy. If he has nothing he's folding anyway. If he has a lower flush, he's never folding. If he comes along, UTG will need to call 20 to win about 58, so he has almost the pot odds he needs anyway (if he has trips.) I think get it in now so you don't have to worry about what to do when the Th shows up on the river.
Just call, shoving would be very bad.
why
Why would you ever want to fold out a whale with a super wide range from the pot and define your hand vs UTG + fold out all of his bluffs ?
What bluffs do you have and how many worse hands in their ranges are stacking off ott compared to making a mistake otr ?
Lastly, what other hands in your range wanna check back flop/shove turn as played if any ?
I would not want to fold out a whale from the pot, but I think it's more valuable to get the money in versus UTG, who's raising range is super strong here. What bluffs can he really have? He raises versus a whale, and we have Ah. I would just assume that his range is super strong and therefore I want to get the money in asap, we miss value on various river cards.
The fact that we don't have bluffs doesn't really matter, because UTGs raising range is so strong. But we can have some Ah-hands for sure as a bluff, if we want to bluff.
Again, I don't think it matters if we don't have others hands to play like this, because UTG is so strong here.
I disagree with you in a sense that it doesn't matter if we're a lot towards value here, because UTG is so strong. But I do agree that it kinda sucks that we push whale out of the pot. Not sure which is more valuable, getting it in with the nuts versus UTGs strong range or keep a whale in with hands like JhJx.
Of course it matters how you play your whole range when playing vs other thinking players.If UTG`s range is super strong when he raises, what do you think your range looks like when you shove over it?
You`re basically hoping UTG is an idiot and is gonna call you with w/e, while folding out a whale instead of letting him hit his flush, straight, trips or w/e and go broke.
Do you honestly think that UTG will fold a set or a flush? And that's pretty much his (value)range.
Versus extremely polarized range it doesn't even matter that much what your range looks like, because villain either has a very strong hand (he calls), or air (he folds).
...
UTG has already a third of his stack in OTT, I doubt he would fold even tough our reraise would look extremly strong.
Agreed with Prince. I really like the arguments.
One thing I'd like to add is that we're not that worried about action killers (I expect any flopped set to lead given the board texture, positions and a whale in the pot) + we're getting stacks in vs worse flushes anyway (we don't have any FH combos when the board pairs).
So, jamming = folding out the fish + being face up as hell.
Fish is not folding 100% of the time. And by calling we're representing a weak range? By shoving we can have bluffs, by calling we always have a strong hand. We're more face-up by calling...
@Samu:
Yes, but he'll certainly continue with a wider range we call, as opposed to when we overshove.
I didn't say that. I just meant that might look weaker relatively to our shove.
Could you give some examples, please?
And when we shove after a lead from a whale and a raise from a reg, we don't? :D
It just seems like a terrible bluffing spot tbh, so, basically, if our calling range is wider than our shoving range, calling is less face-up imo.
What do you think about it?
We look strong no matter what we do here, so we might aswell just shove. What's the point of not getting more money in AND look super strong anyway?
Think about your calling range here. What hands are there? Yeah, only very strong ones...
And if this seems like a bad spot to bluff, doesn't it make this an excellent spot to shove for value?
And I disagree that our calling range is wider than our shoving range. There are not many hands that we want to call here, we need a very strong hand to call here. Shoving polarizes our range and allows us to have bluffs (Ah-hands).
Let's face it, regardless if you call or shove to UTG that will look extremely strong... however because you checked back flop he might not give you credit for the nuts and call the shove with strong-ish flushes... but you are folding out BB... it's quite probable that at least either BB or UTG have some hearts or already a made flush which would make it less likely to see a 4th heart on the river. With all that said, I think calling is better/higher EV than shoving over.
Pre is a call for me with the BB stats.
Flop I would bet as BB and even UTG will have weaker draws with some equity that will call.
As played I think you are overestimating your opponents if you think they will rule a flush out of your range, saying that I would just flat and let BB hang himself.
Ok thanks guys for the discussion, it was interesting. In game I just shoved and they both quickly fold. Still not sure about the best play. I think that maybe calling is better, as I keep the fish in and I will probably GII OTR if one of them have a flush and maybe a set (especially vs the fish). I also think that even with a set the reg can still fold as I rep super strong and put me on a flush the vast majority of the time. By calling he can put me on a hand like AhX. Last point for calling: I'm IP and so it will be easier to get value OTR.
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