NL20 - good spot to overbet?
Posted by Matt P
Posted by Matt P posted in Low Stakes
NL20 - good spot to overbet?
Blinds: $0.10/$0.20 (6 Players)
BB: $78.19
UTG: $8.08
MP: $69.04
CO: $22.13
BN: $28.19
SB: $23.52 (Hero)
UTG: $8.08
MP: $69.04
CO: $22.13
BN: $28.19
SB: $23.52 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.30)
Hero is SB with
A
J
, , , ,
Standard 3bet for me SB v BTN. Villain is 30/27 with a 67 f23b but it's only over 220 hands or so.
Flop
($3.00)
4
9
3
,
I don't think I fold out better hands and he's rarely folding a pair here.
Turn
($3.00)
4
9
3
6
,
Nothing has actually changed from the flop (though hands like 65s and spades picked up equity) but I think once he checks back, he has 9x/TT/JJ at most and very often hands like 88/77 that won't want to call two more bets.
River
($6.20)
4
9
3
6
9
,
Now all his 9x hands made trips, but that's not a huge portion of his range. I think he mostly has bluffcatching hands like 88/77/JJ/TT which may call a reasonably-sized bet. Am I right in thinking that when we perceive villain's range to be mostly bluffcatchers it's a good spot to overbet (for value and as a bluff)?
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