Nl20 Crying call or clear fold
Posted by guljo
Posted by
guljo
posted in
Low Stakes
Nl20 Crying call or clear fold
BB: BB: $20
UTG: UTG: $37.59
HJ: MP: $23.54
CO: Hero: $20
BN: BTN: $25.56
SB: SB: $20.38
UTG: UTG: $37.59
HJ: MP: $23.54
CO: Hero: $20
BN: BTN: $25.56
SB: SB: $20.38
25/18 opens 24% on HJ
Preflop
($0.30)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
T
A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
($1.50)
2
A
J
(2 Players)
MP bets $1.05,
Hero calls $1.05
Turn
($3.60)
K
(2 Players)
MP bets $2.52,
Hero calls $2.52
River
($8.64)
Q
(2 Players)
MP checks,
Hero bets $5.18,
MP raises to $19.37, and is all in
His river agg% is 35.
The question is does he ever bluff here? Is it possible that he plays AA, KK, JJ like this, perhaps some straights. I am getting almost 3:1 on this call.
What do you think?
thanks!
Loading 12 Comments...
Fold, you call for a split at best dont think the odds are good enough.
I fold there.
Sry about that, but how i can get such outfit for my hands when im posting them ? I have HM2.
I don't think he should bluff like this with JJ,KK. Hands what you fold to a raise, he beats with sets anyways.
To make a good call you have to split at least 53% of the times(you risk 10.65 to win the half pot which is 20.15). If he keeps barrelling every weak aces which he picked up flush draw with then you should fold here. Lets say he barrels all AT, and all Asxs Then you split with 5 combos, and lose to 9 combos so it should be a fold. If you think he is capable of bluffing here with AA which is one combo it's still not enough.
If he ch/calls turn with weak Asxs, then call might be better. Anyways It seems like a fold to me.
I think you can make a case for folding the turn vs a MP open,
I think calling seems alright. I'd expect him to just valuebet his flushes since he won't have any blockers to you having 2pr which would ch behind the river very often. Also, an Axss hand would ch/c the turn a decent amount, and he can still be bluffing with Asx which would make a lot of sense. While he likely won't have As9 from the CO, he can still possibly do it with AsJh type hand or AsQ that doesnt think it's good enough to ch/c.
This is prob never KK/JJ, and I'd doubt AAs
I would say fold, looks like the nut flush. Ace weak kicker of spades would play this line.
I think if he wanted to bluff he would most likely lead river
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Put a 24% range in pokerstove and check what you get: The only combinations that the board doesn't block are ATs-A2s and T9s (and I guess lower suited connectors, if he opens those in MP). That totals at around 10 flush combos. On the other hand, he has more than 40 combos of Tx in his preflop range, so even if he check-raises the river with 1/3 of these, you have to call, and that's before putting *any* bluffs in his range.
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