Nl20 Crying call or clear fold

Posted by

Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Nl20 Crying call or clear fold

BB: BB: $20
UTG: UTG: $37.59
HJ: MP: $23.54
CO: Hero: $20
BN: BTN: $25.56
SB: SB: $20.38
25/18 opens 24% on HJ
Preflop ($0.30) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Flop ($1.50) 2 A J (2 Players)
MP bets $1.05, Hero calls $1.05
Turn ($3.60) K (2 Players)
MP bets $2.52, Hero calls $2.52
River ($8.64) Q (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.18, MP raises to $19.37, and is all in

His river agg% is 35.

The question is does he ever bluff here? Is it possible that he plays AA, KK, JJ like this, perhaps some straights. I am getting almost 3:1 on this call.

What do you think?

thanks!

12 Comments

Loading 12 Comments...

Tonislau 11 years, 1 month ago

I fold there.

Sry about that, but how i can get such outfit for my hands when im posting them ? I have HM2.

guljo 11 years, 1 month ago
I click view hand, than export as flop turn river, after I just paste into forum and remove the results. Hope it helps.


Will Winaton 11 years, 1 month ago

I don't think he should bluff like this with JJ,KK. Hands what you fold to a raise, he beats with sets anyways. 

To make a good call you have to split at least 53% of the times(you risk 10.65 to win the half pot which is 20.15). If he keeps barrelling every weak aces which he picked up flush draw with then you should fold here. Lets say he barrels all AT, and all Asxs Then you split with 5 combos, and lose to 9 combos so it should be a fold. If you think he is capable of bluffing here with AA which is one combo it's still not enough. 

If he ch/calls turn with weak Asxs, then call might be better. Anyways It seems like a fold to me.

mplecki23 11 years, 1 month ago

I think calling seems alright. I'd expect him to just valuebet his flushes since he won't have any blockers to you having 2pr which would ch behind the river very often. Also, an Axss hand would ch/c the turn a decent amount, and he can still be bluffing with Asx which would make a lot of sense. While he likely won't have As9 from the CO, he can still possibly do it with AsJh type hand or AsQ that doesnt think it's good enough to ch/c. 

This is prob never KK/JJ, and I'd doubt AAs

CreepyHawking 11 years, 1 month ago
You can't possibly fold here. The three spades on the board block incredibly many of villain's flush combos, so you're good an overwhelming fraction of the time.

Put a 24% range in pokerstove and check what you get: The only combinations that the board doesn't block are ATs-A2s and T9s (and I guess lower suited connectors, if he opens those in MP). That totals at around 10 flush combos. On the other hand, he has more than 40 combos of Tx in his preflop range, so even if he check-raises the river with 1/3 of these, you have to call, and that's before putting *any* bluffs in his range.

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy