NL2-Getting 3bet shoved at the turn from a nit
Posted by GeoPur
Posted by
GeoPur
posted in
Low Stakes
NL2-Getting 3bet shoved at the turn from a nit
Blinds: $0.01/$0.02 (8 Players)
BB: $1.67
UTG: $2.19
UTG+1: $3.87
MP: $2.24
MP+1: $2.27
CO: $2.47 (Hero)
BN: $1.49
SB: $2.00
UTG: $2.19
UTG+1: $3.87
MP: $2.24
MP+1: $2.27
CO: $2.47 (Hero)
BN: $1.49
SB: $2.00
Preflop
($0.03)
Hero is CO with
3
3
, , , ,
utg has vpip/pfr of 12/8 at 525 hands in 9max
Flop
($0.21)
3
Q
6
, ,
Turn
($0.47)
3
Q
6
K
, , ,
Final Pot
UTG wins $2.38
Rake is $0.09
Rake is $0.09
we need roughly 20% pot odds to call here. Since he is a nitty player and he open from very early position his range will be super tight. I think here he has KK and maybe 66. I think fold is the best option imo unless he shoves with AK which I dont think so.
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He could have AA and KQs, maybe? Probably not KQo.
So his value range to shove could be QQ+, 66, KQs. You have enough equity to call against this range.
What % of hands do you think utg would open preflop? I think it could be close to 10% of the total hands. Now another person in the comments says he would open 2%. This % seems very weird to me. What do you personally think?
I don't play 9-max, so don't really know UTG ranges. However, as HawksWin says below, if he's opening 8% overall, his UTG range might be extremely tight.
I guess you play then 6max right? How often do you open from first position? I've seen in a video from PartyPoker that the guy opened about 16% of the time.
In 6-max from first position, I open about 14% of hands.
Ok. Thank you!
What belrio42 said but you can call the turn and jam the river. He's going to bet all 3 streets with those value hands and the board is pretty dry. He could stack off with those on the turn but you give him to opportunity to fold like AK, AQ(if he has it) and this is a way-ahead/way-behind situation.
Is this guy 12/8 from UTG specifically? Or is he 12/8 overall after 525 hands. If he is 12/8 overall, I would expect his UTG opening range to be uber tight, like 2% tight, like QQ+ and AKs tight. Against this range, you can probably raise flop even thought it is so dry. As played, either raise/call turn or simply call his turn barrel and proceed to river. He won't have 66 here, he will have QQ, KK and AA here.
He is 12/8 overall. I also dont think that he would only raise 2% of the hands. If a tag was at this position he would probably open around 10-15%. Now what you suggest is 5 times+ tigher than what a tag would do. If it was only 2% then he wouldnt have a 12/8 but he would have a much less vpip and pfr. Btw it's 9max, not 6max.
I might be a little big too tight with my assessment but I would venture to guess his UTG range 9 or 8 handed is going to be super snug. I would check out what his specific stat is from UTG or UTG+1 and see what is opening % is. I would guess it is something like:
UTG 2-3%
UTG+1 3-4%
UTG+2 4-5%
MP 5-6%
MP+1 5-7%
CO 7-9%
BTN 9-12%
SB 8-13%
Add up the high end of each of those and divide by 8 and you will get roughly 7 to 8% overall.
I dont think that this is how you find the pfr. Btw I did the math by putting my ranges from all those positions and it gave me pfr: 24, while I have about 16(for about 25k hands).
I think we need to take into account how often we limp also from sb(if we do), how we react to a villain's open, how often we squeeze, how we play 3bet, 4bet pots, how often we isolate limpers etc. The math model you are giving is not correct.
Just bring up his player profile, filter for RFI by position and those are the numbers you are looking for. This will eliminate any limping, 3 betting, etc. I am curious to see what % he is opening UTG. Again, the sample is very small in the grand scheme of things. The formula PT4 uses for PFR is (Number of times raised preflop/(number of hands - number of walks)) so PFR isn't the best stat to use. RFI is what we are concerned with here.
Ok.
Never folding a set here. Also never raising turn when we have no bluffing range and their range is more nutted. SPR will be low on river and we will be in position as well, so money will go in easily against hands that will call your turn jam.
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