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Posted by korn1337
Posted by
korn1337
posted in
High Stakes
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Assuming he's never flatting KK, JJ pre AND he's always betting 22 on the river, you're facing 4 combos of KJ and 3 combos of 22 (which are likely folding). That means, you got 3 / 7 fold equity (42%) which is more than sufficient.
If 22 only valuebets 50% though, your FE drops to 1.5 / 5.5 which is 27% - too low.
That said, if you assume he's playing scared, that would include that he's mostly not bluffing and likely he'd be xb with 22 a good portion of the time. I'd probably hesitate to pull the trigger in that specific case.
wait, if my math correct we need ~67% fold equity on the river since we are risking 17550 to win 26 150
However I think I got it. Since BigFiszh only mention boats.
I would fold 22 to be honest there, but it is close anyway, I certainly can see people underbluffing or overbluffing there so gotta make choice.
Need a coach?
Also punch yourself in the dick, you want make that river mistake again.
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korn1337 You mention that you suspect villain is nitty and value betting tight on this river. Ideally though, hands like QT, T9 and JT should be raising flop and barreling turn at some frequency (right?). In that scenario, T9 has to be a value bet on the river, no?
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