NL1k how to build my raise turn and river range in this spot
Posted by lilxam
Posted by
lilxam
posted in
High Stakes
NL1k how to build my raise turn and river range in this spot
Hey guys, I have couple of questions for this particular spot that raise un general one.
In this hand I planed on calling the turn to realize my equity and in any case raise the river. This is vs a good reg.
I'm trying to understand how I should build my raising ranges on this board.
My first guess is that our bluff raises should be hands that were good enough to call the previous street and not god enough to call on the current street but has enough FE (considering blockers) and/or equity to justify a raise.
I'll try to be clearer.
First, do you have a raising range OTF ? I don't really think I do.
Turn we could have one. I would say that for value we have AT maybe A9 and QJ. So we can put Q9/J9 in our bluffs for example. And bet any river almost.
River we can raise QJ for value and bluff KJ/KQ. I think we should be overbluffing such a spot cause we rep QJ and most people never bluff here. Villain would need a very good read to be able to call enough hands. If he calls QJ and sets that's not enough. And calling a DP is hard for him.
Moreover villain might have some 3 barrels bluffs as his range crush mine on this spot.
IPoker, $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $1,087 (108.7 bb)
Hero (BB): $1,030 (103 bb)
UTG: $1,013 (101.3 bb)
MP: $1,469 (146.9 bb)
CO: $1,064.10 (106.4 bb)
BTN: $1,108.82 (110.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q
9
4 folds, SB raises to $30, Hero calls $20
Flop: ($60) A 9
K
(2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero calls $40
Turn: ($140) T (2 players)
SB bets $98, Hero calls $98
River: ($336) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $235.20, Hero raises to $862 and is all-in, SB folds
Results: $806.40 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: A 9 K T 4
SB mucked and lost (-$403.20 net)
Hero mucked Q 9 and won $803.40 ($400.20 net)
Loading 16 Comments...
Raising range OTF for value: 99, A9, (K9), assuming you never flat ak, kk or aa. Bluff raising range: JT, QT, QJ,
Turn bluff range: Your hand something like J9 dd, so bd flushes with small pairs
River: Sets, straights i dont think we need to worry too much about balanced river raising ranges, doesnt apply all to often, especially in this spot where villain has it too often himself.
Why are we raising turn with J9dd?
I think the hand that hero has should be raised on the turn.
We have a gutter to broadway, and a flushdraw. We block some QJ and 99 combos. We think a pair of nines wont be good enough too often, and if we just call, we dont know how to play the river most profitably even when we hit.
Ok thanks.
River :
Well if you are villain, what's your 3 barrel range ? Every DP+ and maybe 1 or 2 hands of bluff or maybe more (cause that's a good 3 barrel bluff spot for villain as my range can't be super strong here). And then what do you do if you get raised ? Don't you even think about folding 99 here ?
I would. So I think it's a good spot to turn hands into bluffs as we might have something like 60%+ FE if we have some blockers on sets and str8.
It's not about GTO, it's about general reg exploitation, I mean bluffing where nobody does.
Question is, which hands bet/call (almost) always: QJ, AA, KK. Hands that bet and maybe call, maybe fold, depending on how disciplined villain is: 99, AK. Hands that often bet and always fold to a raise: AT, KT. Is he ever betting a single ace here? What is his river bluffing range here something like 89dd, you r hand with dd with the busted bd flush, cant believe villain bets total air ott or even otf. The larger his bluffing range in this spot, the more profitable becomes your play.
Personally I would never have a raising range on this flop. Since I'm 3betting AA,KK,AK,AQ and 99 PF I find it hard to represent much and it to be an awkward board to raise considering villain's range has ours crushed.
I would flat all my A9,K9, and gutshot type hands. It seems slightly exploitable that if we're raising A9,K9,99, and all of our gutters on the flop then our hand is always pretty face up as Ax,Kx, or 9x and villain can fairly effectively bet 3 streets on most runouts with his strong percieved range against our weak one.
I think you can fold this hand OTT. And u can play this way TQ and even KJ, KQ cause u cant call them river. Its hard decision for opp, it depends on your image. Most players would call here AK+.
Yeah I totally agree with you, my hand is not strong enough to be called turn.
Would you have a raising range OTT ? If yes, then this is a hand we should be raising.
I have a serious image. I don't even think I would call AK if I was villain. Except if I know the guy is a very good reg and is balanced on most spots.
Cause I absolutely never see people bluffing these spots OTR.
I don't think we should be raising this turn bc I don't think we want to raise QJ here. In general you will make more money by deferring your raise to a later street when your hand is not particularly vulnerable and the board is not overly likely to change in a way that prevents your opponent from continuing to bet his coolered value hands. He will probably continue to bet his coolered value hands on the river and we can raise then. This will also net us more money by collecting another street from his bluffs.
In general you will make more money by deferring your raise to a later street when your hand is not particularly vulnerable and the board is not overly likely to change in a way that prevents your opponent from continuing to bet his coolered value hands.
I don't see how the way that you've chosen to apply this concept to this situation argument holds any merit (with the way that you've chosen to support your application) -- By the same token, if the board is not overly likely to change in a way that your opponent bets the river, why is he more likely to fold the turn to your raise? If the board is 'unlikely' to change, then why is your opponent not more likely to call the turn raise and the river bet?
In addition, the (one-pair) hands that Villain is value-betting are going to slightly reduce the likelihood of Hero having a straight, so this seems like some vague application of a concept which may or may not hold.
I would classify ~43% as fairly likely to change, but regardless, I don't see how your argument holds any weight. It might be the right conclusion, but it seems like there's very little (hard) analysis to back it up, one way or the other. I would've called turn, but for different reasons.
For what it's worth, the counter points that I was making are not rigorous either, but I was just pointing out how easy it is to throw around opinions like these, and not get much done.
Was just providing a simple theoretical concept to support my opinion on not raising QJ here. You conveniently left out the last sentence of my original comment which explains why I believe flatting will yield more EV. Obviously I disagree with your claim that proposing a line and supporting it with a simple theoretical concept is meritless.
Yeah I totally agree with that.
But villain doesn't know we are thinking like that. So it's not a big deal to have some bluffs even if don't have value hands in reality; we can have some value hands in our perceived range. So that would let us raise Q9 as a bluff turn for example right ?
We might still have enough FE and equity to make it +ev.
Flop raising range looks bad to me and i dont think it's v close..villain has all the AK/KK+.
If you have 16 combos of QJ, i would think it's a big favorite to be a mixed strategy OTT. Assuming that's true, it means that villain is supposed to play a strategy where he bets turn with a significant amount of hands that will XB river. If villain unpolarizes the turn c-bet range, OOP generally gains incentive to XR.
usually IP is enjoys unpolarizing the turn c-b up to the "threshold" b/c he gets decent utility out of protection betting with marginal top pairs. imo is why TP hands model as mixed strategies for IP so often in this line -- if he bets for 2 streets too aggressively, BB shifts to a MES XR strategy and IP is left wishing he checked. Whether or not this board is dry enough to de-incentivize IP to unpolarize the turn c-b, or whether or not the turn hits BB too hard for IP to unpolarize (to AQo/AJo), i'm not sure of.
If IP is correct to start x'ing back too much AJ/AQ, then we can make a good argument that BB is supposed to install a turn donking range.
it's a good hand to play around with the balance points and explore why mixed strategies become incentivized. if i have some time this week i'll throw it in GTORB and post the solutions.
I think you misread the hand, it's BVB.
:(
This will also net us more money by collecting another street from his bluffs.
You conveniently left out the last sentence of my original comment which explains why I believe flatting will yield more EV.
Thanks for pointing that out, I actually didn't see the last line. It certainly supports your line, and I would probably do (exactly) what you're suggesting, w/ some specific hands.
I think the problem is that you haven't defined what a value hand for the Villain is (in both the scope of line(s) and holding), yet you state this opinion as if it somehow holds (any) weight, and because of that, my comment still stands..
I can see why the way you're thinking about it seems reasonable, though, and I used to talk about hands in the same manner (as well).
Be the first to add a comment