nl1k 6max , Set faced river shove
Posted by moon
Posted by
moon
posted in
High Stakes
nl1k 6max , Set faced river shove
Villain is perceived as aggro , call open from BTN like 12-13 % , and 3b like 14-15 % ( 7k hands )
He bets flop vs missed Cbet 65%. We are perceived aggro too.
What do you think about turn and river line ? And now what to do ? ty all
UTG folds , UTG+1folds
Hero 1633 ( CO ) 7s7h raise 25
BTN 895 call 25
sb fold , bb fold
8c 7c Jd ( pot 65 )
Hero check , BTN check
8c 7c Jd 5c
Hero check , BTN bet 50
Hero raise 180
BTN call
8c 7c Jd 5c 3d (pot 425)
Hero bet 380
BTN shove 690
Hero ???
Loading 4 Comments...
If you both have an aggressive image, I´d rather cbet this flop instead of slowplaying / check-raising. This just makes the hand a total guessing game now ... It´s unlikely he checked behind with T9, but it´s likely he checked behind with clubs (to avoid the x/r from an aggressive player).
It´s further possible that he does not put you on a flush but exactly on set / 2-pair ... but that´s pure and unnecessary levelling game. As played it´s tough to fold when you need 17% equity, so call and pay for your mistake. :D
Bet Flop.
Well you're always beaten on the river it seems, so you can fold now (unless the dynamic between you is so crazy that he'd shove bluff here with some 98s / JT or missed clubs... some players do make this kind of crazy move because it doesn't have to work so often, and since it looks so strong, it does work a small % of the time. Is your vilain this type of player?).
I don't mind the intended flop XR, but the turn XR looks a bit too strong and obvious for me, esp since he didn't bite on the flop. Betting turn is better IMO, you're more likely to induce mistakes than by check-raising.
After you bet 380 in a pot of 425, which is a pretty strong bet, the Villain still shoved on you, and that too another 310. It's highly unlikely that he's trying to throw you off a strong hand. I think he's putting you on a hand stronger than a set. And still shoving. That means he is really really strong. Had you checked the river, and he would have bet 80-100pc of the pot, you could have contemplated a call. But calling a check-raise and shoving on your almost pot sized bet on this board, it wouldn't be too smart of the Villain to bluff.
A couple of suggestions, and please correct me if i am wrong, as i too am learning:
1. I don't think by betting 380 in 425 on such a board with a set is going to be very profitable. I'm sure your intention is not to convert your hand into a bluff and make the Villain fold a straight. You are never really getting called by a worse hand.
2. Secondly, the whole discussion about betting the flop. Though if you are an aggressive player, betting the flop is great. But considering you took a passive line, and considering the Villain is an aggressive player, you could continue with the passive line on all streets. Because check raising the turn on that board will make him fold most hands that can bet on the river too for value, and his bluffs too. Also, another purpose that it'll serve is that he will make a note against you that you mix up your game and slow play big hand at times. Which can help you get cheap showdowns with marginal hands as his bluffing frequency against you will go down.
Please feel free to tell me if i am out of line here with my analysis. :-)
Be the first to add a comment