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nl16z AA facing nit c/r on Qs8d4d

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nl16z AA facing nit c/r on Qs8d4d

Blinds: $0.08/$0.16 (6 Players) BN: $14.72
SB: $21.96
BB: $22.81
UTG: $19.88
MP: $16.00
CO: $40.16 (Hero)
Villain has played 8/5/5 over 38 hands, cbet once and folded to a cbet once.
Preflop ($0.24) Hero is CO with A A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.36, Hero raises to $1.36, 3 folds, MP calls $1.00
Flop ($2.96) 4 8 Q
MP checks, Hero bets $2.12, MP raises to $5.28, Hero calls $3.16
Turn ($13.52) 4 8 Q 7
MP bets $9.36 and is all in

I tanked on the flop, I'm not thrilled and was considering giving him nitcreds and fold. I have seen players make these kinds of plays with KQ, A8 type hands (not sure if nits do this often though), so I called to evaluate turn. I think this might be a mistake vs villain.

Villain could shove something like KQdd, AQdd, 88, QQ, I would be surprised for a much wider range. Versus this, I'm in bad shape, but then I might have benefited from folding to the flop check raise.

I'm interested in the spot if villain was not a nit. Then I think it's a clear call, but I also question if I should jam flop instead since my range will have flushdraws as well? I don't want to call turn with TdJd for example.

I think my range to the flop is something like QQ+, AJ+, KQ, sometimes 77-TT, TJs, T9s, 87s, KQ and double-sometimes suited aces and suited one-gappers down to 75s. I think I have quite a few hands to bet "for value," even though I believe the board should be slightly better for villains range. Potentially my line should be to call with AQ+ on the turn? Or should I shove flop with all of my range since then my draws get to see both cards?

4 Comments

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Freenachos 6 years, 8 months ago

You can overfold vs a nit, but in a 3bet pot I think i think ypure good often enough here. Not thrilled, but not havingAd makes a difference here. Im going broke here vs most villains (no idea about stats or sample here).

a_zuzolo 6 years, 8 months ago

A lot going on here...My first response is simply that I think you are putting far too much weight into a 38 hand sample. I would literally ignore the stats with that short of a sample.

I also think that even if those stats were based on a larger sample, this still wouldn’t be a fold. You are just far too high up in your range here, and as free nachos stated about, without the Ad in your hand, your opponent just has too many possible hands that you crush for me to ever consider folding this.

I think the turn decision on which hands to call / fold / jam is way more interesting. Against a tight opponent, and when getting such a good price, and in position, I don’t think I would just be jamming all of my weak flush draws. Maybe just the flush draws that are ace high, or also have a pair or straight draw? I’m not totally sure.

But yeah, as played, I’m never folding (and definitely not based on stats over a small 38 hand sample :)

FooDooFaFa 6 years, 8 months ago

Thanks for the discussion guys! I agree with the thoughts put forward and am happy that I seem to have gotten some of the ideas right. Unfortunately that I didn't have blockers to Ad was not something that I thought of while playing and I ended up tank-folding. Next time I'm better equipped though :)

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