NL10z turned set, do we shove OTR relatively deep?

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NL10z turned set, do we shove OTR relatively deep?

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.52
SB: $11.38
BB: $33.53
UTG: $16.29 (Hero)
MP: $9.23
CO: $10.00
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is UTG with 8 8
Hero raises to $0.25, 4 folds, BB raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.55
Flop ($1.65) Q J 5
BB bets $0.52, Hero calls $0.52
Turn ($2.69) Q J 5 8
BB bets $1.67, Hero calls $1.67
River ($6.03) Q J 5 8 5
BB bets $3.71, Hero calls $3.71

V seems to be tighter Reg with 21/17/7. Can we comfortably shove River here after turning lucky set? Or is V folding AA/KK too often for such a big shove and only calling QQ/JJ, seeing that shoving would still be 100BB in 130BB pot (which I obviously thought in the hand)?

3 Comments

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HawksWin 4 years, 1 month ago

I am ripping. Sure he can have QQ for sure, lots of BB's won't 3b JJ vs UTG. So figure he has 4 or 5 combos of QQ/JJ. He has 12+ combos of AA/KK/AQ. He is bet/calling 33% of the time and bet folding 66% of the time (assuming he bet/folds AA/KK which I think might be a stretch). So worst case, he calls 33% and folds 66%. We risk 13 to win a pot of 9 (rounded). We need it to work 60% of the time. We unblock everything we want to unblock. I am going for it.

Kuduku 4 years, 1 month ago

I can see why TT or even 99 with a club peals the flop but 88 is a bit too optimistic to say the least. Especially against a range that does not include enough bluffs to begin with.

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