NL10z Small bluff with GS OTR after donk
Posted by downflux01
Posted by downflux01 posted in Low Stakes
NL10z Small bluff with GS OTR after donk
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $13.26
SB: $11.80
BB: $11.42
UTG: $4.72
MP: $10.80
CO: $12.04 (Hero)
SB: $11.80
BB: $11.42
UTG: $4.72
MP: $10.80
CO: $12.04 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is CO with
K
J
, , , ,
Unfortunately no reads on villain, population here is a mix of people flatting with PPs / suited BW and regs that 3b wide (like up to 18%)
Flop
($0.60)
9
Q
9
,
Imo he can obviously donk trips and maybe sometimes strong Qx he didnt 3b. Howevere, in my experience its mostly draws that want to generate fold equity (JTs, KTs, KJs). Vs such assumptions we have around 32% equity and therefore would make the cut to call here
Turn
($1.50)
9
Q
9
6
, ,
I would expect most of his 9x to follow through after our call but lets say he plays them a bit tricky sometimes. I know that my opponent will have enough draws that are going to call and I could exploitatively size down a bit to also keep his gutshots in, but I feel like the bet needs to look a bit bigger to appear like value (with value id go bigger here exploitatively though, like 1.20-1.30)
River
($3.60)
9
Q
9
6
A
, ,
We would chop with a lot of his KJ, KT type of hands and beat stuff like JTs or other lower SC FDs, but he can also have some Ax FDs that rivered a pair here (depends on this 3b PF strategy though and how many of those he leads the flop with). So I figured Id bet smaller and fold out his missed draws in case wed chop and expect to still get called by some strong Qx and Ax. But maybe since we win the pot sometimes by showdown, its also good to check.
Final Pot
SB
wins and shows Pair of Aces and Pair of Nines.
CO lost and shows Pair of Nines.
SB wins $5.76
CO lost and shows Pair of Nines.
SB wins $5.76
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