Nl10z folding a set on flop

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Nl10z folding a set on flop

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $33.66
SB: $18.90
BB: $24.27
UTG: $32.48
MP: $10.07
CO: $16.26 (Hero)
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is CO with 2 2
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, BN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20
Flop ($1.20) 2 6 7
SB checks, BB checks, MP bets $1.10, Hero raises to $3.00, SB folds, BB raises to $11.25, MP folds, Hero folds
Final Pot BB wins $7.93
Rake is $0.37

Hey! I usually do not fold flop sets, but when i do, i do it after the same line :) Seriously, can we fold that one OTF?

BB: 21/15 40hands
MP: 26/11 55hands

After that action, I put BB on a very strong range: 7c7d,7c7s,7d7s,6c6d,6c6s,6d6s,9c8c,9d8d,9s8s,8h6h,8h5h,7c6c,7d6d,7s6s,5h4h
I have 50% against this range, so on paper, i should have called it. But all in all, I rather play cleaner spots, there is enough weak players in the pool from whom i can win some $.

6 Comments

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Renegaz 5 years, 3 months ago

I'm not folding anyway, he could have a nasty combo draw 4h5h / 8h9h or two pair, or even some guy that is not folding KK-AA. Also could have draws that are not monsters and we are doing good.

If he has a set, good for him, but I'm not raising 30bb to fold.

Renegaz 5 years, 3 months ago

Just to add, I'd consider a fold only if BB donks bet full pot, and MP raises all-in in front of us, them against two players I'd think about a fold...

HawksWin 5 years, 3 months ago

Not saying I would do it, but if there ever was a time to fold a set, this is a perfect example. You guys are pretty deep here. Both players seem reasonable thus far (very small sample). MP range will likely contain 77/66/76s here. BB will certainly have 77/66/76s and maybe 76o. As for the high equity draws, BB will have all of them (98hh, 54hh and A6hh). I think MP probably has 98hh and A6hh, I am on the fence if we should include 54hh in MP range.

So the big question is, does your pool have a history of punting off with overpairs/OESD's in spots where a solid MP players bets and a solid CO raises?

On a side note, I know how tempting low PP's are to play as a call from all positions. I think my PP call range is going to start at about 55 here, maybe even 66. I can get behind calling from BTN some of the time. 22-55 in these spots are likely to be unprofitable due to several factors (oversetting, bad playability on most boards, not to mention the massive rake paid at micros).

1BuckPlease 5 years, 3 months ago

I am pretty sure that BB was not holding 88+ here. He was a tightish player and in that pool and against a player like BB, in this situation we can almost completely exclude overs. Maybe MP was holding an OP or some draws. IMO the best scenario would have been 98s, 45s and maybe 67s and of course most of time 66, or 77.

Wildspeaker 5 years, 3 months ago

The randomness factor of your opponents at 10NL will be far too high to make folding a set on this flop a real option.

You would need a very predictable as well as nitty opponent to be able to fold here. And though they might be nitty, they are not predictable enough. There are still so many hands they can reasonably do this with and only 6 combos of those beat you.

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