NL10z: bluff catch or not with 55

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NL10z: bluff catch or not with 55

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: nike412: $10.33 (Hero)
SB: I have 2 AAs: $10.10
BB: surerplayer: $10.47
UTG: shota0428: $11.05
MP: talaher: $4.37
CO: Cheddarmus: $26.55
Preflop ($0.15) nike412 is BN with 5 5
3 folds, nike412 raises to $0.25, I have 2 AAs calls $0.20, surerplayer folds
Flop ($0.60) 4 8 3
I have 2 AAs checks, nike412 bets $0.37, I have 2 AAs calls $0.37
Turn ($1.34) 4 8 3 Q
I have 2 AAs checks, nike412 checks
River ($1.34) 4 8 3 Q 8
I have 2 AAs bets $0.80, nike412

Thoughts on all streets are appreciated.
OTR we have about 27% odds to call to break even. We have a bluff catcher, blocking some bluffs , and no value hands, so it makes a poorer bluff catcher in the GTO situation, but nevertheless could i make this call?

9 Comments

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Disharmonist 9 years, 6 months ago

I think this is just a fold. Wont go much into these spots.

Preflop: Std.
Flop: prefer betting over checking despite sdv, it just allows us to take ti down very frequently and avoids awkward turn and river spots
Turn: See now reason in turning my hand into bluff
River: As said, my std. is just to fold, I expect fds to raise flop at least like 50% of the time anyways and I see most ppl just trying to get to showdown with their Ax hands.

klamsauce 9 years, 6 months ago

I think the hand is played fine. On the river, I'm not happy about blocking almost all the straight draws but we aren't blocking flush draws so that is probably a wash. He's pretty polar to 8x I'm not even sure if he would vb a marginal Q given we probably play some 8x this way. I'm indifferent to bluff catching here.

iMRUSh 9 years, 6 months ago

U block some of his possible bluffs like A5s, maybe an occaisonal 65s or 55.
I don't think I wanna overcall the situation readless.

He does represent some AQ, KQ, 44, 33 occasionally, some QJss, QJcc, QTss, QTcc, A8s, 98s, 87s, some A5s, A2s, FDs, and maybe T9cc, 76s, 65s occasionally as a bluff, but I don't know really players how bluff happy in a situation, on the river like this. It is possible to some player overbluff the situation like this, readless I think it's better to fold.

Pokerlogical 9 years, 6 months ago

Okay so in my Experience it is not entirely impossible that he is bluffing there but I think it is way more likely that he has some kind of Thin Value here or even a Queen or a Full house.

He could have expected you to bet the turn on the scarecard, thus checking his value hands on the turn so he still has ALL value hands he can have+ Trips he can bet for value now.

So a pretty clear fold. With JJ I think I would still fold but that would be certainly close because you beat some thin valuebets.

ignasijo 9 years, 6 months ago

Thanks for your insightful comments. In a hand I folded.
I checked my database and in these situations vs blinds I'm folding about 80 % of the time (over 75 trials) OTR facing a bet. Although I have seen some bluffs (missed low flush draws, gut shots) in this situation but as Disharmonist said most of the A highs check at those limits and most of the pairs, so on this particular board texture IMHO when Villain calls the flop he has some A highs, pairs, some flushes, but most importantly very very little straight draws, and if Villain is not capable of floating greatly with broadways, then OTR he is left with little bluffs if he is not turning A highs and pairs into bluff.
I have come to conclusion that an exploitable approach to this situation (folding more) given my pool reads, will generate the most profit.

Rynaldo900 9 years, 6 months ago

I agree I think it's a fold. Villain has to call flop with either a pair, straight draw, or flush draw. He only VB an 8 here and maybe some queens. He could have spade draws but I don't think often enough for it to be profitable

Knoxox 9 years, 6 months ago

Fold because he has 2 AA :)
Jokes aside, my default would be to fold here. Most people try to get to showdown with Ax and he might x/r some draws OTF.

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