NL10z AQo unpleasent spot
Posted by 1BuckPlease
Posted by
1BuckPlease
posted in
Low Stakes
NL10z AQo unpleasent spot
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $14.89
SB: $7.48
BB: $13.25
UTG: $10.15
MP: $11.12
CO: $13.50 (Hero)
SB: $7.48
BB: $13.25
UTG: $10.15
MP: $11.12
CO: $13.50 (Hero)
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is CO with
Q
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($2.45)
5
9
A
, ,
Final Pot
BN wins $4.82
Rake is $0.23
Rake is $0.23
UTG's RFI in EP is 75% in 26 hands.
BN is 21/17 in 25 hands.
BN looks like a reg. What is his cold calling range pre, which is good enough to raise me OTF after my 3bet against an utg raise? Dont think there will be any bluffs behind this raise. Put him on 99, or AK, rather the latter.
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Seems like a good spot to check strong sometimes (hard to go for 3 streets, and we can comfortably c/c and get away on the bad turns). I like betting with the Qc combo much better. We improve vs AK or some other weird 2 pair on all 3 Q's vs playing a guessing game when the Qc hits when we have the other AQ combos. The difference of having just one more clean out vs. AK and 2 pair is huge here. Look at the spots where we hit 2 pair on 3 flush turns and check and let BDFD check and realize for free because of the danger with that third club on board.
^_^ doesn't seem big deal with Qc when IP shouldn't have flushes at all. Especially when Qc hits, he left with JTcc,KTcc,KJcc and they are all suppose to losing as a call pre.
AK makes a lot of sense here, can see villain not wanting to stack-off vs tight ranges and 4bet-fold.
pre AQo isn't a 3bet vs UTG at least for me. OTF If you're betting half pot you probably need to be checking, so you'd have to start checking some KKs with a club, or KQcc, etc., I'm not sure how wide of a range you're 3betting vs UTG, but for the odds you are getting you almost have to defend you're entire range, maybe you can fold some TT with no club, but I think you still have to call. Turn will be dicey facing a bet. I'd rather be checking back an AQcx on this flop instead of this combo with no backdoor.
Not sure how you conclude that a player that overcalls a 3bet and then almost minraises flop is a regular. 3bet pre on low stakes def fine.
Not sure why you choose half pot, you have a huge range advantage and want to barrel this board almost always. Go for 1/3 and always call this small raise with AQ.
If you fold this, you fold your entire range. After only playing 20 hands with someone, you definitely don't know if he min raises AJ, AQ, a number of flushdraws or only AK+ here. That is just random guessing.
When he raises 3x+ and you have a few hundred hands on him, fine, make that nitty fold. But this is definitely too tight.
What range do you perceive villain to have here? Granted he’s an unknown.. you advocate betting range, but why is this a more favourable option va check calling?
I looked at it again more in depth and the best play here is heavily bound to the range from BTN.
As this varies drastically, but is more often than not a condensed, rather strong range, we should indeed x/c relatively often here, at least in theory.
If we range bet, villain has to bluff raise a lot of combos that most players wont, such as 7s and 8s, as well as some Ts and Js.
I locked the strategy to raise frequencies of AKo and AQo, as well as half the club FDs.
9s are always raising and A5 almost always.
I think this isnt far off reality and should give us a good aggregation of how our flop strategy performs.
Now we actually gain EV compared to playing more passive, as villain isnt raising enough. If villain starts overcalling more hands, this means an even higher EV gain.
There is obviously a margin of error, so we shouldnt focus too much on that EV gain, but it shows, that range betting here is probably the best play.
By betting range, we simplify our strategy and can, with some theoretical groundwork, pilot a lot more turns and rivers profitably, as a range bet situation on an Axx board occurs quite often.
It is always important to not forget that humans still have to actually play, aside from what the best theoretical play is.
So we not only gain EV by exploiting our oponnents tendency to underbluff, we also gain EV by picking a strategy, that we can execute a lot easier.
I would call preflop. I don't like 3bet because his range will be more strong.
In situations where you c-bet on a strong board for your range and the IP player raises you it's unlikely he is bluffing (based off experience). IP players tend to raise less with bluffs overall and then all the other reasons I mentioned are reasons why your perceived range should be quite strong. Obviously the bet-fold creates a situation in which we are over-folding quite dramatically, but I think this is going to be a max-exploit vs the average player in this situation (though I wouldn't fold this hand specifically). I also like c-betting because we should have the best hand here more often than not. All that being said, I don't think I'd fold this specific hand because there is a subset of players that like to raise small in situations like this to "see where their at". Typically not a bluff, but more of AX/TT/JJ/QQ type hands and a large portion of these would typically x turn. So, I'd peel the raise AP.
All that being said, I typically c-bet for much lower size in this situation if I do bet or just check since the CC vs 3b in position is typically pretty strong and given you have some stats on the player suggesting he isn't a wild fish just calling ATC, this would be my preference.
TLDR;
if cbet, sizing 25% or check
As played, call raise--> proceed with caution
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