NL100z - Tough spot in 4B pot BTN vs CO 140BB
Posted by bdon22
Posted by bdon22 posted in Low Stakes
NL100z - Tough spot in 4B pot BTN vs CO 140BB
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BN: $389.78 (Hero)
SB: $116.38
BB: $79.00
UTG: $214.86
MP: $178.51
CO: $141.63
SB: $116.38
BB: $79.00
UTG: $214.86
MP: $178.51
CO: $141.63
Villain is a reg on the tighter side. I don't recall stats off the top of my head but he is somewhere in the 19/15 to 21/17 region with less than 2.0% 4B overall and around 50% F3B. So pretty much solid and I have no other history with him.
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BN with
T
A
, , , , ,
I decide to juice the pot a bit and to isolate the since we're deeper. I think villain could be opening a lot of hands for 2x here. Calling might have been another option given BB is a fish.
The large 4B sizing is slightly concerning but given our nuttable hand and position, I think I can call here. Villain appears to be fairly straight forward so far.
Given villain's low overall 4B% and tighter stats, I'm weighting his range more towards ultra premiums (QQ+/AKo+) and maybe the odd suited connector given we're deep.
I could be wrong about this, but I don't think he's the type of player to 4B so large with JJ/TT or AQ/AJ/KQ -- although it's possible he might 4B the latter with this sizing given the blockers and FE with the increased bet sizing.
The large 4B sizing is slightly concerning but given our nuttable hand and position, I think I can call here. Villain appears to be fairly straight forward so far.
Given villain's low overall 4B% and tighter stats, I'm weighting his range more towards ultra premiums (QQ+/AKo+) and maybe the odd suited connector given we're deep.
I could be wrong about this, but I don't think he's the type of player to 4B so large with JJ/TT or AQ/AJ/KQ -- although it's possible he might 4B the latter with this sizing given the blockers and FE with the increased bet sizing.
Flop
($35.50)
J
4
A
,
I'm calling but not overly excited given the PF range I assigned villain.
Turn
($69.50)
J
4
A
T
,
Reasons for folding:
1) I don't think villain is the type to 4B JJ pre, and we block AA -- although I'm sure that the times he does play his hand this way, it could be AA very often. I don't think he has JJ or TT for reasons previously stated.
2) KQ is a possibility if he was 4B bluffing pre with blockers and now made the nuts. It would make sense to play his hand this way to get maximum value from my range which could appear to be JJ/TT/AJ/AT/JT and hit this board hard.
3) Villain has very tight stats overall and even appears to be on the nitty side - both from stats and previous history. Overbetting is not that common at SSNL and when it does occur it's more frequently the nuts than not.
Reasons for calling:
1) JTs, 98s -- I think he would 4B these sometimes. KTs, QTs -- I think he would rarely 3B these. If he ever shoves these hands some % of the time here I think I need to call.
2) GTO wise I have to defend ~39% of my range and given I block clubs and AA -- this might be one of the better hands to defend with. I think it's close though -- and there are some better hands in my range for sure (KQ, AJ, JJ, TT, slowplayed AA).
1) I don't think villain is the type to 4B JJ pre, and we block AA -- although I'm sure that the times he does play his hand this way, it could be AA very often. I don't think he has JJ or TT for reasons previously stated.
2) KQ is a possibility if he was 4B bluffing pre with blockers and now made the nuts. It would make sense to play his hand this way to get maximum value from my range which could appear to be JJ/TT/AJ/AT/JT and hit this board hard.
3) Villain has very tight stats overall and even appears to be on the nitty side - both from stats and previous history. Overbetting is not that common at SSNL and when it does occur it's more frequently the nuts than not.
Reasons for calling:
1) JTs, 98s -- I think he would 4B these sometimes. KTs, QTs -- I think he would rarely 3B these. If he ever shoves these hands some % of the time here I think I need to call.
2) GTO wise I have to defend ~39% of my range and given I block clubs and AA -- this might be one of the better hands to defend with. I think it's close though -- and there are some better hands in my range for sure (KQ, AJ, JJ, TT, slowplayed AA).
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