Be aware that if you give him 97 and 76 then you should also give him T8 which beats you and 98 and 87 and 86 which draw.
Also him having only a 3% betting range makes that almost all Ax flush draws out there are still possible which is indeed kinda scary.
Some people will bet out on the river in order to not miss value with a NUT flush draw. That your opponent is passive makes this less likely.

All in all it seems like a close call against this particular opponent due to his passive nature and 3% preflop. As there are so may flush draws possible should just check back against this particular opponent.

There doesn't seem to be too many downsides to betting the river small vs described opponent. If you never get bluffed and can squeeze out a bit of value great. Probably not a huge EV difference between checking but I can see it being a bit higher.

Hello Jeff,

I am playing lower limits (however, yesterday I finally beat NL5, so consider me as a NL10(0) player :D), but if you don't mind I would like to say a few words about your hand.

• preflop is that a standard play for you? The problem is that as you say, on SB you have a bit cally type of guy, but you have a position, so maybe I am overreacting now. I just like to put more emphasis on things that are usually 'default' but when I am thinking about them more I have more questions than answers
• you wrote that a guy has a reggish stats but at first glance I can see a guy who has 42bb here. He has incredible low 3bet%. I guess that is calling here with JJ-22, suited aces, suited broadways, some suited connectors, and hands like AQ-AJ, KQ. I don't believe that he has hands like 97s/T8s until I see it because that's not a standard play here and we have to decide: either we think of him as a fish or we think about him like he is a reg. If you think that he is a reg, then why do you think that his range here is so wide?
• you hit a wonder flop and you are here at the top of your range so I don't understand your sizing on the flop. Maybe that's a standard sizing but the board texture is connected and heavy drawy and you have a hand that wants to generate a value and need a protection. Yes, I know that he has a short stack, but in his range, there are plenty of combos who can give you only 1 or 2 streets of value
• what is more, you said that you chose this sizing because he is a passive type of guy and I don't agree with and especially I don't understand that argument. That's the perfect example of the guy who can pay you here and if you are lowering your sizing here you are losing a lot of value
• if he calls, imo his range is something like this: JJ-66 (36 combos), Flush draw: AdXd, KdXd, Qdxd, Jdxd, 8d7d (16 combos), AdQx+AdJx+KdQx (9 combos), T9s (3 combos), 98s (3 combos) maybe some backdoors like AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc (4 combos), oesd 87s, A8s (7 combos). Maybe we should even consider here all his gutshots but for now let's not do it. Against this range you have 76% equity. SB range has 65 combos here at least. The passive guy should have even more if you gave him a very good odds to call here on the flop
• on the turn equity shifts, now you have a 63% against his range.
• let's take a look at his range. It contains 15 flushes, 9 sets, 12 overpairs, 6 top pairs, 14 oesd.
• if we talk about a numbers, then it's more probably that SB has still a flush draw (20 combos) than that he has it (15 combos)
• he still has here 9 combos of sets and you are afraid about 15 combos of flush draws. Actually we don't know that he is calling here all of his Axs, but we assumed the worst option so we have to stick to it
• so turn is not so good, but it could be worse
• Sets are not folding, flushes are not folding, OESD are not folding, so what might he fold here? What kind of hand can call a flop and fold now? only backdoors and some gutshots but that's all.
• so, I totally don't understand your sizing. I cannot agree that this sizing is not important because on the river he has $30 and the pot is $22,78 and has here less flush combos than hands who can still pay you on a different card and again imo you are losing value here. Imo if we think that it's ok, we are results oriented.
• things are really tricky on the river. Theoretically, you are ahead, but the only worse hands that can call you here are sets - 9 combos. You have a split with 8 combos and 15 combos are beating you so I like your check behind.

Omg, my post is too long I guess :)

I hope this answer helps you.